Syracuse vs San Diego State Midwest Region Picks: Aztecs Ascending

For much of the year, it looked as if Jim Boeheim and the Syracuse Orange would miss out on the NCAA Tournament, but the Orange are dancing once again and will be a sexy 11-seed to move on to the second round.

But don’t overlook the San Diego State Aztecs just because you haven’t seen them play one minute of basketball this season. The Aztecs are experienced, haven’t lost in about two months, and are only laying 3-points.

Check out our best Syracuse vs. San Diego State March Madness picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Friday, March 19.

Syracuse vs San Diego State odds

Sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

San Diego State hit the FanDuel odds board as a 2.5-point favorite, quickly went to -2 a couple of times, then rebounded to -3, with all those moves coming Sunday night. On Friday night, with tipoff about 90 minutes out, the Aztecs are still -3 on two-way action, with 52 percent of spread bets and 54 percent of spread money on San Diego State. The total opened at 138, spent most of the week at 139 and is now 138.5, with 59 percent of bets/58 percent of cash on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Syracuse Orange vs San Diego State Aztecs betting preview

Injuries

Syracuse: Bourama Sidibe C (Doubtful), Frank Anselem C (Out).
San Diego State: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 10-1 in Syracuse's last 11 neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Syracuse vs. San Diego State.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Despite getting knocked out in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament on a buzzer-beater against Virginia, it appears Syracuse did just enough down the stretch to make the field for the NCAA Tournament. They enter the Big Dance with March Madness odds of +10,000 to win the national title, the same as San Diego State.

Syracuse won five of its last seven games heading into the ACC tourney, including wins over UNC and Clemson, and it performed well in the loss to the Wahoos. But even though the Orange are back in the Big Dance this isn’t the same Orange team you would be used to.

While they still employ Boeheim’s patented zone defense, it is nowhere near as fearsome this season. They aren’t as long and athletic as you would like from a Boeheim team and are terrible on the boards. As a result, they rank 89th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. 

What you do need to worry about with the Orange is Buddy Boeheim and his ability to get hot at a moment’s notice. Syracuse is also an excellent free-throw shooting team but overall it struggles with its shot, ranking 131st in effective field goal percentage and 219th in 3-point percentage.

Meanwhile, as mentioned, San Diego State may be the best team you haven’t seen play this season. The Aztecs have won 14 straight games, going 9-5 ATS over that stretch, on the way to the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship.

San Diego State is led by Matt Mitchell, the Mountain West Player of the Year. Mitchell does just about everything. He averaged 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while shooting 45 percent from the floor, and is a tough defender. He and senior guard Jordan Schakel make a dangerous duo. Schakel made 46.6 percent of his 161 3-point attempts.

While this Aztecs team might not be as strong on defense as some of those units from the past, it still ranked 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aztecs aren’t the strongest rebounding team, but they’ll still be able to take advantage of the Orange and should come away with the cover in this one. 

PREDICTION: San Diego State -3 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Get Syracuse on a neutral court and cash Overs, apparently. As noted in the betting trend, the Orange have gone Over the number in 10 of their last 11 in that scenario. That includes both games of this year’s ACC Tournament and a matchup against defensive-minded Virginia. The total in that game was 130 and they ended up hitting 141. 

Syracuse averages 75.6 points per game while giving up 70.8 points at the same time. While San Diego State gives up just 60.1 points per contest, that bumped up to 64.3 in the Mountain West tourney. On offense, the Aztecs average 74.4 points and take on a shaky Syracuse defense that has allowed 72.2 points over the last six games. With the Over going 4-3 in the Aztecs' last seven games, this one should sneak Over the number.

PREDICTION: Over 139 (-110)

First-Half Spread Pick

San Diego State is known for getting up on teams early. The Aztecs had an average first-half margin of +8.8 this season, the sixth-best mark in the country. Their play in the Mountain West Tournament was a little tighter with an average first-half margin of +3.3. 

Syracuse on the other hand was plagued by its inconsistent offense and its ineptitude when it comes to rebounding. The Orange had a +1.7 first-half margin this season, but away from home that number fell to -1.3. The San Diego State shooters will take advantage of the holes in the Orange zone and head into the break with the lead.

PREDICTION: San Diego State -1.5 First-Half Spread (-110)

Syracuse vs San Diego State betting card

• San Diego State -3 (-110)
• Over 139 (-110)
• San Diego State -1.5 First-Half Spread (-110)

Where can I bet on March Madness odds?

March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.

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