The Gonzaga Bulldogs will face the USC Trojans in the Elite Eight on Tuesday night. While the No. 1-seeded Zags have done exactly what everybody expected, Southern California has been a surprise, entering the NCAA Tournament as the No. 6 seed in the West Region and barely cracking the AP Top 25.
College basketball betting lines currently have Gonzaga as a 9-point favorite with the Over/Under at 155.5. Here are our best free USC vs. Gonzaga March Madness picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 30, with tipoff at 7:15 p.m. ET.
USC vs Gonzaga odds
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA posted Gonzaga as a 9-point favorite late Sunday night, and very early Tuesday, the line moved to -8.5, where it remains at 4:15 p.m. ET, three hours before tipoff. It's two-way point-spread action, with Gonzaga taking 62 percent of tickets but just 52 percent of money. The total is down to 153 from a 155.5 opener, with the Under drawing 54 percent of tickets/73 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameUSC Trojans vs Gonzaga Bulldogs betting preview
Injuries
USC: None.
Gonzaga: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Gonzaga.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Gonzaga came into the tourney as the title favorite with March Madness odds of +200. The Zags have lived up to those expectations, steamrolling their opposition and covering the hefty spreads placed in front of them by oddsmakers.
That said, the Trojans haven't exactly been sneaking by teams either. They defeated Drake by 16 points, curb-stomped a Kansas squad that had been ranked No. 12 in the country by 34 points, and then easily dispatched Oregon in the Sweet 16 by a score of 82-68.
If you want a simplistic narrative you could say this is a classic battle between a high-powered offense and a lockdown defense. After all, Gonzaga leads the nation in both scoring (92.9 points per game) and field goal percentage (55.3), while USC holds opponents to the lowest 2-point field goal percentage in the country (41.4 percent).
But neither of these squads are one-dimensional. Gonzaga ranks seventh in the country in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency while USC ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
When it comes down to it, Gonzaga is getting plenty of respect from oddsmakers but USC doesn't seem to be. The Pac-12 has been overlooked all season but its success in the NCAA Tournament is impossible to ignore, with three teams advancing to the Elite Eight.
Pac-12 schools are now 10-1 SU and ATS in the NCAA tournament against other conferences. With how dominant USC has been on both ends of the court during the Tournament, shooting 54.8 percent from the floor and holding foes to a field goal percentage of 32.2, take the Trojans with the points.
PREDICTION: USC +9 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
This bet also comes down to a seeming lack of respect from oddsmakers. Sure, Gonzaga has a dynamite offense led by Corey Kispert (19.2 ppg) and Drew Timme (18.8), but the Bulldogs are also tough on the defensive end of the floor. They limit foes to just 41.9 percent shooting from the floor and have allowed just 63.7 ppg during the tournament.
And once again, the Trojans simply aren't getting the credit they deserve. With freshman sensation and Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley patrolling the paint, USC is sixth in the country in blocked shots with 5.3 per game and has been very tough to score against inside the arc.
The Trojans also hold D1 foes to a field goal percentage of just 38.6 percent—the second-best number in the country and the best for any Power Six conference program. When you also consider that they rank just 234th in the country in adjusted tempo, the Trojans should be able to do just enough to bring this game below the total.
PREDICTION: Under 155.5 (-110)
First-half team total pick
The Trojans were pretty good when it came to first-half scoring during the regular season, but they've really kicked it up a notch during the tourney. Although Mobley carried the scoring load for most of the year, USC has been getting much better play on the perimeter lately with guards like Tahj Eaddy and Isaiah White coming up huge.
The Trojans have scored at least 40 points during the first half in each of their three tournament games, which has us liking the Over 34.5 points on their 1H team total.
PREDICTION: USC first-half team total Over 34.5 (-110)
USC Trojans vs Gonzaga Bulldogs betting card
- USC +9 (-110)
- Under 155.5 (-110)
- First Half Team Total USC Over 34.5 (-110)
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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?
March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.
