The No. 10 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the No. 7 seed Missouri Tigers in the second round of the SEC Tournament tonight.
The Tigers are at No. 21 in the latest AP Poll but have been awful on defense over the last month, and my Mississippi State vs. Missouri predictions expect that to continue.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 13, with tipoff at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Mississippi State vs Missouri prediction
Who will win Mississippi State vs Missouri?
Both teams struggled down the stretch, going 1-4 in their final five regular season games with their only wins coming against the two worst teams in the conference.
The Missouri Tigers clobbered the Mississippi State Bulldogs by 27 points in Starkville last month. However, the Tigers have been the worst defensive team in the SEC since, making them tough to trust as a short fave here.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are better defensively and their offense was firing on all cylinders in the first round yesterday. They've already had a game to adjust to the sightlines at Bridgestone Arena and provide value as a +145 underdog on the moneyline.
My best bet: Mississippi State team total Over 76.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tigers are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five games. The big reason for their recent struggles has been their play in their own end, with Missouri 16th in the conference in adjusted defense since mid-February.
The Tigers are also last in the SEC in opponent 2-point percentage (61.5%) and second-last in defensive rebounding rate (36.3%) during that span.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 33rd in the country in attacking the rim efficiency per ShotQualityBets, and since the middle of February, they're fourth in the conference in offensive rebounding rate (32.2%).
Mississippi State's attack was on fire last night as it cruised to a 91-62 win against LSU. The Bulldogs shot 52% from the floor and 44% from deep. Since they jumped out to a big lead early, they were able to rest their starters in the second half. That will be crucial on the tail end of a back-to-back.
Mizzou has surrendered more than 90 points in five of its previous six contests. Giving up 98 points to Alabama in a winning effort is understandable, but allowing 97 points to Vanderbilt and 92 points to Arkansas is cause for concern.
Mississippi State has scored more than 80 points in five of its last six games and I expect another strong offensive performance today.
Mississippi State vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi State team total Over 76.5
Mississippi State moneyline
Caleb Grill Over 2.5 threes
The Bulldogs have a decent shot of winning this game against a turnstile Mizzou defense. They'll need to put up plenty of points if they want to outscore this highly-efficient Tigers attack however, so parlaying the Over on their team total along with the moneyline makes sense.
Mizzou guard Caleb Grill has knocked down more than 2.5 threes in five of his last games. That's particularly impressive when you consider he's shooting a modest 33.8% from deep over that span. Since Grill has a 42.3 3PT% this season, he should see positive regression against a Mississippi State squad that struggles to defend the arc.
The Bulldogs were second-last in the SEC in opponent 3-point percentage (37.5%) during conference play. They also sit outside the Top 300 at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
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Mississippi State vs Missouri odds
Mississippi State vs Missouri live odds
Mississippi State vs Missouri opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +3.5 | Missouri +3.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +125 | Missouri -150
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi State vs Missouri betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Missouri's last seven games while going 6-0 in Mississippi State's previous six contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Missouri.
How to watch Texas vs Texas A&M
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Mississippi State vs Missouri key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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