We’ve reached the final of the Hawaiian Airlines Diamondhead Classic, where the Nevada Wolf Pack takes on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Christmas Eve.
Both programs enter this matchup riding four-game winning streaks, but the college basketball odds have Nevada favored by -6.5 points across the major sportsbooks.
Please join me as I take a closer look and give my free college basketball picks for Nevada vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday, December 24.
Nevada vs Georgia Tech best odds
Nevada vs Georgia Tech picks and predictions
Nevada is coming off what some call a “statement” game. The Wolf Pack played stifling second-half defense, knocked down some timely triples, and came away with an 88-75 victory over a good TCU basketball team.
Nevada drained 47% from downtown and 80% from the charity stripe while losing the glass battle by a six-rebound margin. The Wolf Pack also forced 11 turnovers they turned into 21 points in a game where just about everything went right for them.
Nevada doesn't normally shoot as well as it did against TCU. It's struggled from downtown, and its big night against the Horned Frogs improved the 3-point shooting to 32% for the season.
The odd thing about statement games is the next game can sometimes be a struggle. The Pack can ask their Sunday night opponent all about struggling after winning a “statement” game. Georgia Tech won games over Mississippi State and Duke but stumbled big time in its next game against Georgia.
It would be easy for Nevada to look past or suffer a letdown to Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets' recent four-game winning streak was fueled by teams ranked outside the KenPom Top 100, and their last three were decided by five points or fewer. Georgia Tech hasn’t looked sharp since it defeated Duke, but we know the Yellow Jackets can play.
When we look closely at these teams we see evenly matched rosters, with Georgia Tech enjoying a slight height advantage. Georgia Tech is one of the best offensive rebounding teams nationally, while Nevada crashes the defensive boards at a high success rate. Nevada has above-average shooting from everywhere but the 3-point arc, while Georgia Tech can’t shoot a lick from anywhere with a high turnover rate.
The good thing for both programs and why I’m playing the Over 139.5 (-110), is both offenses are improving. Nevada is shooting better from downtown, and although Georgia Tech is young, freshmen Baye Ndongo and Naithan George are starting to figure things out.
Finally, these teams are shooting the ball with some confidence. The Yellow Jackets are terrific on the offensive glass, but the Wolf Pack are grabbing a high rate of defensive boards, and we’ll see a dogfight on the glass with some putback opportunities for both.
My best bet: Over 139.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Nevada vs Georgia Tech same-game parlay
Over 139.5
Georgia Tech +6.5
I’m expecting two improving offenses to get after it Sunday night, and this parlay correlates perfectly and pays $212 for a $100 stake.
I expect this contest to be closer than the oddsmakers do. I like how Georgia Tech beat Hawaii and watched it beat Duke at home. The Yellow Jackets played solid against the Blue Devils and I witnessed the same intensity Friday night in the first half against Hawaii. If they can play 40 minutes against Nevada the way they played the first 20 against the Rainbow Warriors, they'll keep this game close.
Finally, Nevada has a strong defensive efficiency rating, but it hasn't faced a tough test yet if beating TCU was some sort of statement. It’ll likely feel a bit of a letdown, but that should dissipate quickly once it realizes Georgia Tech is for real.
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Nevada vs Georgia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
The total of 139.5 was too good to pass up. I understand it’s a championship, but it isn’t like they're playing for the NCAA championship. There might be some jitters, but these teams looked comfortable in Hawaii, and I expect each group to score into the 70s.
Over bettors can find 139.5 (-110) at many of the major U.S. sportsbooks, and Under bettors can find 140.5 (-110) at DraftKings while everyone else has Under 139.5 (-110).
We’ll likely see action late come in on this game. I like Over 139.5 for a total, and we should expect to see that number rise closer to tip-off.
Nearly everyone offers Nevada -6.5, but FanDuel offers the best odds (-102) while everyone else has -110. Conversely, FanDuel offers the worst odds at +6.5 (-120), which will hopefully move to +7 or even higher. If it does indeed move to +7 or higher, I will hit the counter with an additional side bet on the spread.
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Nevada vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know
Nevada has hit the game total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Nevada vs. Georgia Tech.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Nevada vs Georgia Tech game info
| Location: | SimpliFi Arena, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Sunday, December 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Nevada vs Georgia Tech key injuries
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