In what might be a must-win game for both programs to reach the NCAA Tournament, the Indiana Hoosiers host the Ohio State Buckeyes in their Big Ten regular-season finale, hoping to add to their resumes to push to March Madness.
While both teams are having disappointing seasons, a win today could give them the momentum they need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament and earn an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
With so much on the line, my Ohio State vs. Indiana predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 8, expect a tight contest.
Ohio State vs Indiana prediction
My best bet
Ohio State +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The last time these programs met was on January 17, when the Indiana Hoosiers went into the Schottenstein Center and shocked the Ohio State Buckeyes in a 77-76 overtime win.
That game highlighted just how equally matched these programs are and why neither has lived up to the hopes of their fan bases this season.
However, both programs are currently projected to earn No. 11 seeds by Bracket Matrix, meaning a win today could be enough to sway the committee to put them into the NCAA Tournament.
With so much on the line between these two flawed teams, I think the Buckeyes are capable of doing enough on the road to keep it close.
For as sporadic as Ohio State has been this season, it’s still 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. That’s thanks to the emergence of Micah Parrish, John Mobley Jr., and Devin Royal alongside All-Big Ten guard Bruce Thornton.
That foursome has the Buckeyes eighth in Big Ten play in PPG (76.6), sixth in 3-point percentage (35.2%), and third in made free throws per game (7.8). They should be able to push a Hoosiers defense that’s 46th in adjusted efficiency and has given up 76-plus points in eight of its last 14 conference games.
While Jake Diebler’s Buckeyes do take an offense-first approach, it helps that Indiana has struggled with consistency when it comes to scoring.
The Hoosiers are 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency and rank 13th in Big Ten play in PPG (73.2) behind an attack that’s also 13th in field goal percentage (44.6%) and 15th in made 3-pointers (6.9).
Despite transfer portal additions like Oumar Ballo, Luke Goode, and Myles Rice, Mike Woodson’s team has scored 73 points or fewer in 10 of 19 Big Ten games.
That’s why, even at Assembly Hall, I think Ohio State should be able to lose by fewer than three or even win (the moneyline is +125).
Ohio State vs Indiana same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State +2.5
Bruce Thornton Over 15.5 points
Oumar Ballo Under 8.5 rebounds
If Ohio State is going to show up to play, it’s going to need Bruce Thornton to do what he does best and score.
The junior is coming off a 29-point performance in the OT win over Nebraska and has gone for 20-plus in three straight games - he’s also put up 17-plus in five of his last six.
His 3-point shooting has been especially lethal this season - he’s shooting 43.2% from behind the arc - and even when he struggled from deep against the Hoosiers in their last matchup, he still managed 18 points.
Oumar Ballo, on the other hand, hasn’t been at his best lately. The Arizona transfer has pulled down fewer than nine boards in seven of his last 11 games
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Ohio State vs Indiana odds
Ohio State vs Indiana live odds
Ohio State vs Indiana opening odds
- Spread: Ohio State +2 (-110) | Indiana -2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ohio State (+115) | Indiana (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 148 (-110) | Under 148 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Ohio State vs Indiana betting trend to know
Ohio State has covered the spread in 20 of its last 36 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI). . Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Indiana.
How to watch Ohio State vs Indiana
| Location | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Ohio State vs Indiana key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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