The No. 8 ranked Iowa State Cyclones are hoping to avoid a season-ending meltdown like the one that dashed their Big 12 Conference regular season title hopes from one season ago.
This season, the Cyclones are 16-0 at James H. Hilton Coliseum and host an Oklahoma Sooners program that defeated Iowa State in their Big 12 opener and would like nothing better than to spoil the Cyclones title hopes and sweep their regular season series.
Who will win Wednesday’s Big 12 matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Oklahoma and Iowa State on Wednesday, February 28.
Oklahoma vs Iowa State best odds
Oklahoma vs Iowa State picks and predictions
The Iowa State Cyclones have had impressive regular-season runs during head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s two-year tenure. However, the Cyclones lost games they shouldn’t have down the stretch, ruining their Big 12 regular season title hopes.
The Cyclones have an opportunity to remake history and avenge their Big 12 opening night loss against the same Oklahoma Sooners they are heavy favorites against on Wednesday night in a barn they are 16-0 at this season.
One Sooners player they’ll need to lock down is junior guard Javian McCollum, as he’s stepped-up big time since forward John Hugley IV was injured against Oklahoma State. McCollum is jacking up more shots, including more from downtown in Hugley’s absence, but he’ll have a tough time draining two or more triples on Wednesday.
The Oklahoma guard has been solid for the Sooners this season but he’s having a down year from beyond the arc. McCollum is a career 35% shooter but knocks down only 32.1% of his triple attempts for Oklahoma this season. That number dips to 25% on the road and he’s going to have a tough time clearing the DraftKings number.
KenPom ranks the Cyclones overall defense as third in the country — they allow 33.8% from downtown on the season which dips to 32.1% at home. They yielded 41% against West Virginia but allowed Houston to shoot 29% from downtown at Houston, and we should see the same effort Wednesday night against McCollum.
Finally, this is a big matchup for both teams. McCollum has been hot from downtown but struggles on the road from long range. Iowa State does a good job closing out shooters from downtown and they’ll look to lock down McCollum. The Sooner’s guard has failed to clear his number in five of his seven away games this season and won’t make more than 1.5 treys.
My best bet: Javian McCollum Under 1.5 made 3s (+140 at DraftKings)
Oklahoma vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Javian McCollum Under 1.5 made 3s
Oklahoma +10
Under 137
This three-leg same-game parlay card is a banger and it all centers around McCollum and two tremendous defenses.
Much has been made about the Cyclones defense, but the Sooners have a good stop unit as well. Their defense has allowed Oklahoma to cover the number in three of their previous five away games. Iowa State is 3-2-0 ATS over their last five at home but has a winning margin of 11 points or more just twice in conference play this season.
The respective defenses are why this matchup ends Under the number. The Under is 7-3-0 in the Sooners’ last 10 and the Under is 5-5-0 in the Cyclones’ last 10. We’ll see a physical game at the D1 average pace and an outcome ending below the number.
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Oklahoma vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis
If their recent history is indicative of what is to come, Wednesday’s tilt is going to be a hard fought, low-scoring contest.
That’s why I was surprised the number moved from Iowa State -9.5 (-110) to -10 (-115) at DraftKings. Their last three meetings boasted winning margins of +9 or fewer and Iowa State doesn’t have the type of offensive firepower to blow a quality team like Oklahoma out.
Turnovers have been an issue for Oklahoma, but they had just eight miscues at Oklahoma State. The Cyclones average 22.5 points from turnovers but they won’t get that many Wednesday night and they’ll need to find another way to get buckets.
That will force Iowa State to score the basketball in their half-court set and the Sooners defense is solid enough to keep the Cyclones from blowing them out. We’ll likely see DraftKings join everyone else at -9.5 (-110) before long.
There hasn’t been much movement at all on the total. FanDuel opened the Under 137.5 (-110) and like the rest of the U.S. shops opening 137, hasn’t moved at all.
DraftKings opened Over 137 (-115) and has slowly lowered the odds to -112. The Under opened -105 with the odds rising to -108. It makes sense; Oklahoma tilts are 3-7-0 to the Under over their last 10 but 4-3-0 to the Over as the away team.
Flip that around and we have an Iowa State team with a 15-12-0 record to the Over and 9-7-0 to the Over at home this season.
Oklahoma vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Javian McCollum has one or fewer made 3s in five of his last seven road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Iowa State.
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Oklahoma vs Iowa State game info
| Location: | James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Oklahoma vs Iowa State key injuries
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