Oklahoma vs TCU Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Frogs Make the Leap

It’s entirely possible that the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Christian Horned Frogs have already done enough to earn an at-large March Madness odds bid.
 
However, a win Wednesday in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament bracket would go a long way in cementing it, leaving the other having to wait for their fate on selection Sunday.
 
That’s what’s likely at stake when the teams clash at the T-Mobile Center at 3pm, with TCU currently posted up as a 2.5-point favorite in the college basketball odds. 

The winner moves on to a well-rested, Conference Tournament odds favorite Houston Cougars squad in Round 3.
 
Who takes this sort-of must-win? Read below for my Oklahoma vs. TCU free college basketball picks for March 13.

Oklahoma vs TCU best odds

Oklahoma vs TCU picks and predictions

Both the Sooners and Horned Frogs have impressive statistical resumes. 
 
Oklahoma is rated 40th on KenPom, specifically 47th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency. 
 
They led the Big 12 in 3-point shooting defense, the only school to keep opponents at under 30% on the year, and their 68.5 points allowed per game ranks 80th in the NCAA.
 
However, they are staggering into Kansas City, having dropped a 94-90 decision in their season finale to Texas, giving OU three losses in four games.
 
TCU, meanwhile, has an identical 20-11 record to the Sooners, and its 9-9 conference mark is a game better than Wednesday’s opposition.
 
The Horned Frogs are 33rd in KenPom’s overall rankings, inside the Top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
 
Their 80.4 points per game average is third in the Big 12 and 39th in the nation, while shooting it at a 47.4% clip from the field (46th) and 36.4% from distance (58th).
 
They didn’t do themselves any favors to close out the year, though. Like the Sooners, they lost their regular-season finale, a 79-77 decision to UCF, and dropped three of their last four. That included a brutal 12-point loss to conference bottom-feeding West Virginia.
 
In the lone matchup between these teams this season, the Horned Frogs dumped Oklahoma — ranked ninth at the time — 80-71.
 
TCU dominated the turnover battle, converting 14 takeaways into 25 big points. That helped to offset a poor shooting night, as it shot only 43.8% from the field, including a 7-for-24 mark from distance.
 
That makes it four wins in the last five head-to-heads, but what really tips this in the Horned Frogs’ favor is on the injury front.
 
Junior forward John Hugley IV has been out since around the start of February, while senior guard Rivaldo Soares has been ruled out after hurting his ankle against Texas in the season finale. 
 
Soares had averaged better than 17 points on nearly 74% shooting over the final three games, and that lack of production should allow TCU to find its way to Round 3.

My best bet: TCU -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Oklahoma vs TCU same-game parlay

TCU -2.5 

Emanuel Miller Over 14.5 points

Emanuel Miller Over 0.5 3-point makes

+266 at DraftKings

Adding onto the TCU spread, I’m focusing solely on TCU senior forward Emanuel Miller. Tied for fourth in Big 12 scoring at 16 points per game, Miller has been given a 14.5 scoring line against Oklahoma Wednesday.
 
While he is coming off a 13-point effort in their loss to UCF, Miller has been pretty steady, having topped this total four times in the last six games.
 
He should also welcome a second appearance against the Sooners — regardless of their defensive chops — as he lit OU up for 27 points on a crisp 11-for-17 shooting. 
 
That was the second-highest scoring total of Miller’s season. Look for him to lead TCU offensively against the short-handed Sooners.
 
We’ll stick with Miller as he’s been given a lowly 0.5 3-point make line too, a number that is just a little more confounding considering he has hit at least one triple in seven of the last 10 games.
 
He’s also found the range against the Sooners, going 2-for-5 from distance in that January win.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has lived in the two-point range, opening at 2.0, and not going higher than 2.5.
 
TCU is one of the better cover teams in the nation, with an 18-13-0 ATS record, while the Sooners are hovering at around .500, at 15-16-0.
 
The total has remained consistently at 144.5 almost exclusively, with just a few books pushing that number up to 145.
 
The Sooners have gone Over the total in four of their last five, though the Over is just 15-16-0 in their games. TCU has hit the Over in three straight games, and it owns a 17-14-0 O/U record on the year.

Oklahoma vs TCU betting trend to know

Oklahoma has only covered the spread in seven of its last 21 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. TCU.

Oklahoma vs TCU game info

Oklahoma vs TCU key injuries

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