Oklahoma vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Dig In on Defense

The basketball version of the Red River Rivalry is set for this Saturday at the Moody Center between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns.

Porter Moser’s squad is out for revenge after falling 60-75 in Norman back on January 23. Both squads will have something to prove with the NCAA Tournament looming and seeding of great importance. 

There are still a lot of dominoes to fall, but the current forecast has these teams meeting again in the Big 12 Tournament as the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds. If Texas loses, then a rematch is assured, but if Texas wins and TCU beats UCF then the Longhorns will move to the No. 7 seed and avoid a rematch.

Looking at college basketball odds, the Longhorns are 5.5-point favorites while the total resides at 144.5. 

What’s the best bet to make for the final iteration of this rivalry as a Big 12 regular season game? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Texas on Saturday, March 8.

Oklahoma vs Texas best odds

Oklahoma vs Texas picks and predictions

The first full year under head coach Rodney Terry has been topsy-turvy for the Texas Longhorns. After an 11-2 start to the year, they haven’t won more than two games in a row since January 1. The roster is still oozing with talent and potential, however, making them a fascinating case come tournament season. 

Terry has been adamant that this team still hasn’t fully realized that potential, and it’s easy to see why. Max Abmas is one of the most accomplished and well-known players in the country and he made that abundantly clear with a 33-point effort in a midweek 85-93 road loss to Baylor. Dylan Disu does a little bit of everything and is shooting an absurd 51.4% from 3-point range this season, while Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell, and Kadin Shedrick are all quality pieces. 

The Longhorns head into their final home game of the season, ranked 25th overall in KenPom and forecasted as a No. 8 seed in the big dance, according to Bracket Matrix. Of the four seniors being honored for Senior Day, two are considered questionable — Disu had a knee injury and has battled a stomach bug throughout the week, while Brock Cunningham broke a bone in his shooting hand in the Baylor game. 

Saturday’s foe is the rival Oklahoma Sooners, who picked up a 74-71 midweek win over Cincinnati to rebound from a tough two-point loss to the league champs, Houston. There isn’t a whole lot separating these teams on paper, as the Sooners rank 37th overall in KenPom and are a No. 9 seed over at Bracket Matrix. 

Scoring is a team approach for Porter Moser’s squad — six players average between 8.4 and 13.6 ppg. None average more than lead guard Javian McCollum, who missed the Cincinatti game with a shoulder injury. Forward John Hugley IV (8.4 ppg) also missed that contest with a knee injury and it’d be a surprise if we saw him Saturday, while McCollum is considered questionable. 

There’s uncertainty regarding the status of both teams’ best player, which makes this handicap an odd one. McCollum’s status looms large as he takes and makes more threes than anyone on the roster and shoots a superb 94.3% from the foul stripe, which is important because the Sooners thrive by getting to the line and converting. Disu is Texas’ best player.

Both offenses prefer to operate at a slow pace — Texas ranks 209th in adjusted tempo while Oklahoma checks in not far behind at 224th.

I like the Longhorns’ defensive profile more than the surface-level box scores might indicate because they run teams off the 3-point line and defend the rim decently well. The Sooners don’t bring a whole lot to the table offensively, ranking 79th in Barttovik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of February. 

On the flip side, Texas’ offense is a head-scratcher — they excel at converting in the paint (ninth in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics), but rarely ever priortize finding those looks (327th in percentage of shots taken at the rim — 32.9% per Hoop-Math). It’s difficult to trust a team without a sound offensive gameplan on a nightly basis, and Oklahoma’s defense is decent (25th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom). 

Go ahead and give me the Under. 

My best bet: Under 144.5 (-110 at bet365)

Oklahoma vs Texas same-game parlay

Under 144.5

Oklahoma +5.5 

+230 at DraftKings

Texas has been tough to bet on this season, burning holes in pockets everywhere with an 11-18-1 ATS record. Although the Longhorns usually win at home, they still haven’t been profitable and are just 6-11 ATS at the Moody Center. 

If this one plays out as a tight, lower-scoring game, then I’d prefer to have the underdog in this rivalry. Texas has dominated this matchup with six wins in a row and in seven of the last eight, but to me that only means the Sooners will be bent on revenge — especially after playing such a poor game in the initial meeting. 

Disu is one of my favorite players in the country and I’m unnerved by his current injury. Although the team brushed off the knee injury after the Baylor game, his week has also been disrupted due to a stomach virus. Even if he suits up, it’s difficult to imagine him being at 100% or playing his best game. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Best college basketball bonuses

 All Users
33% boost for each of today's Top-25 matchups
e.g. +100 BOOSTS to +133! Claim Now

New Users
33% boost for one CBB bet
e.g. +100 BOOSTS to +133! Claim Now

Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Oklahoma vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hasn’t moved yet after opening at Texas -5.5 across most books. One opened at -6 before quickly joining the fray at -5.5, and there is also a -4.5 available as of the time of this writing. The total has seen no movement. Be sure to track any further changes using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Texas has dominated this rivalry recently with a 7-1 straight up record and 5-3 ATS record across the last eight meetings. That includes the first matchup this year when they won 75-60 in Norman as 4.5-point favorites. 

Although the Longhorns covered that spread, they haven’t covered many others this season. They also haven’t been very profitable at home against the Sooners even despite the recent success in the rivalry, going 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings at the Moody Center. 

This is the second-highest total we’ve seen in the last 10 iterations of this rivalry. There have been four meetings in that span with a total in the 140s and they split at 2-2 O/U. 

 If Disu is missing from the lineup, the Longhorns will be without their most effective shooter, their best offensive threat from anyone standing above 6-foot-1, and their second-best rebounder. He also gets to the line more than anyone on the team and coverts free throws at 80.9%. 

It’s easy to see why Disu’s presence is a massive factor in this game. While it may not be true to the same extent, McCollum is also a critical piece to Oklahoma’s offense and his status is paramount after being a late scratch against Cincinnati. 

Even if both players go, it’s unclear if they’ll be at 100%. Neither team plays with a ridiculous tempo and it’s hard to see either cranking the tempo with the health concerns at play. 

Oklahoma vs Texas betting trend to know

The Sooners are 2-8 O/U in their last 10 games with a total of 140 or higher.  Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Texas.

Oklahoma vs Texas game info

Oklahoma vs Texas key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic