Oregon State vs UCLA Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Offenses Do Enough to Get Over Small Total

Conference Tournament odds see another bracket get underway today when the Pac-12 Tournament kicks off in Las Vegas. The second game of the day features the No. 12 Oregon State Beavers and the No. 5 UCLA Bruins.

According to Pac-12 Tournament odds, the Bruins are 6.5-point favorites and the total has been set at 126.5.

It was another down year for Wayne Tinkle’s Beavers, who finished last in the conference for the second time in three years. On the flip side, this was an uncharacteristically poor season for the Bruins, who won't be in the March Madness odds mix for just the second time in the last seven seasons unless they cut down the nets in Vegas. 

How low is too low for the total in this game? Check out my free college basketball picks for Oregon State vs. UCLA on Wednesday, March 13 to find out.

Oregon State vs UCLA best odds

Oregon State vs UCLA picks and predictions

Wayne Tinkle’s Oregon State Beavers haven’t shown many signs of life since reaching the Elite Eight three years ago. They’ve posted a 25-67 record since then, finishing Bottom 2 in the Pac-12 standings three years in a row. At least they don’t have to worry about that anymore with the conference coming to an end. 

This year’s squad is led by two sophomore scorers in guard Jordan Pope (17.6 ppg) and Tyler Bilodeau (14.4 ppg). The two do just about everything for this roster but it hasn’t been enough — the Beavers have dropped nine of their last 11 games. 

Their first-round matchup in Vegas is against Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins, who fell flat this year after the offseason approach of bringing in numerous first-year European imports failed to bring forth fruit. The Bruins hit rock bottom with a 1-8 stretch across nine games from December 9 to January 11, which was enough for most folks to stop paying attention. 

The last of those losses was the worst of all — a 90-44 humiliation in Salt Lake City. Funny enough, that kick-started a bit of a turnaround as Cronin’s squad came alive with an 8-1 run across its next nine games. 

Happily ever after? Not quite — they’d proceed to drop five in a row before a season-ending 59-47 win over an Arizona State team that had players quitting the team before the game. 

Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Adem Bona is one of my favorite players in the country. He plays with a special tenacity that is beautiful to witness, especially come March. Anyone else remember him trying to play with one arm last year? You just don’t forget those moments. 

Outside of Bona, no one else has made much a mark this season. Three other players average double figures in freshman guard Sebastian Mack (12.4 ppg), Utah transfer Lazar Stefanovic (11.9), and sophomore guard Dylan Andrews (11.9). The team runs a thin rotation as Cronin doesn’t trust many of his first-year players — only five players average more than 20 minutes per game. 

These teams met twice in the regular season with UCLA picking up the sweep by winning 69-62 in Corvallis on December 28 and 71-63 at Pauley on February 1. 

It might seem like an odd bet, but I’m grabbing a ticket on the Over. Neither team has much of a reputation for an offense and both play at a slow tempo, which has created an expectation that neither team will score much at all, hence the low total of 126.5.

The thing is, that’s a really low total, and there’s a chance it dips even more before tip-off. T-Mobile has been pretty friendly for offenses — only five games in the last three tournaments (a sample size of 33 games) have seen fewer than 126.5 points. 

This is a friendly environment for shooters, and Oregon State’s defense is really bad (157th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom). If I’m going to consider an Under at a total so low, I have to be pretty sure about most factors. That simply isn’t the case in an offensively-friendly venue with one team being miserable on the defensive end.

My best bet: Over 126.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Oregon State vs UCLA same-game parlay

Over 126.5

UCLA -6

+238 at DraftKings

It’s difficult to feel great about either team at this point in time. Oregon State has lost nine of its last 11 games while UCLA has lost five of its last six. That being said, UCLA has shown a lot more this season and Cronin is a heck of a coach, so the Bruins get the nod against the spread for this bettor. 

Cronin’s squad typically thrives when games are played at a slow tempo. The Bruins should get exactly the kind of game they’re looking for against a Beavers team that ranks 300th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. The Beavers are bad enough defensively that I envision UCLA finding its rhythm and having an efficient enough day at the office to make this SGP a reality. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon State vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis

The line currently resides at UCLA -6 in some locations and -6.5 at others. The total opened at 127.5 but has already moved down to 126.5 at some locations. Be sure to monitor any further fluctuations using our college basketball odds tool. 

I’m hoping for the total to continue its downward movement so I can buy the Over at a lower price. It makes sense some folks are scooping up the Under considering neither offense is very pretty and both teams like to play slow, but as I mentioned there are a few factors on the other side that lead me toward a buyback at a discounted price. 

These teams played twice this year, once combining for 131 points and once for 134 points. 

Oregon State’s defense has been so underwhelming that the Beavers are 20-10 O/U despite playing at a slow tempo and featuring a less-than-superb offense. 

As for the side, Oregon State is 16-13-1 ATS while UCLA is 14-16 ATS. That being said, UCLA is 3-1 ATS across the last four meetings between these two programs. 

Both teams live in the mid-range offensively. UCLA leads the nation with 41.9% of its field goal attempts coming by the way of 2-point jumpers while Oregon State ranks sixth at 36.3%. Both are approximately middle of the country defending such shots. 

Oregon State vs UCLA betting trend to know

Oregon State is 9-4 O/U in games played away from Corvallis this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon State vs. UCLA.

Oregon State vs UCLA game info

Oregon State vs UCLA key injuries

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