Oregon vs Colorado Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buffaloes Take Care of Business

Dana Altman and the Oregon Ducks look to keep their undefeated conference record alive as they head to Boulder to face the Colorado Buffaloes. Coming away with that record still intact will be a difficult task against a Colorado team that is 10-0 at home this season. 

The oddsmakers have taken note of that — looking at college basketball odds, the Buffaloes are 5.5-point favorites while the total resides at 148.5. 

Both teams have battled through injuries but are returning to health, setting the stage for what should be a great game between two quality teams. 

Check out my free college basketball picks for Oregon vs. Colorado on Thursday, January 18.

Oregon vs Colorado best odds

Oregon vs Colorado picks and predictions

The Oregon Ducks weren’t supposed to be atop the conference standings in mid-January, especially not this makeshift version that has shown tremendous resilience battling through injuries to key players.

Oregon has battled through numerous health concerns this season and is finally getting a few key cogs back. Star big man N’Faly Dante returned to the court on Saturday against Cal, scoring eight points in 17 minutes, but his minutes will still be capped for this contest. Nate Bittle is also expected back sometime this week.

Freshmen Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans Jr. have been integral in the Ducks’ surprise success. Shelstad leads the team with 14.6 points per game and is one of the best first-year players in the country. Meanwhile, Evans averages nine points and a team-leading 5.8 rebounds per game, and it’ll be interesting to see how his role changes once Dante and Nate Bittle are reintegrated. 

The Colorado Buffaloes have also dealt with a few injuries to key personnel, and that’s partly to blame for its mediocre 3-3 conference record. The Buffs are back to full strength and are hoping for a statement performance against a Ducks program that is just 1-11 in its 12 trips to Boulder. 

Colorado averages a robust 80.2 ppg and ranks 38th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, so it’s apparent this team has ample firepower to score buckets. Guard KJ Simpson (19.3 ppg) has taken his game up a level, while Tristan Da Silva (15.9 ppg) is one of the best two-way players in the conference.

Five-star true freshman Cody Williams (14.1 ppg) is another standout, and his return has been a big boost after he missed a month with a wrist injury.

The Buffs have been terrific at home this season with a perfect 10-0 record. Looking at it from a betting angle, they’ve covered seven of those 10 wins. Not only have they been winning, but they’ve been doing so impressively and covering expectations. Considering the Ducks have struggled mightily with recent trips to the mountains, homecourt advantage will be huge on Thursday night. 

Colorado also holds an advantage when looking at the metrics, checking in at 36th overall in KenPom compared to 52nd overall for Oregon.

It’s been impressive that Altman has kept his team not only afloat through a rash of injuries but surging to the top of the conference standings. Still, I’ll point out all five victories have come over teams in the bottom half of the conference. In fact, they all have a losing record in Pac-12 play other than Washington State (3-3). 

The Buffaloes are a different kind of test and I expect them to make a statement at home.

My best bet: Colorado -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Oregon vs Colorado same-game parlay

Colorado -5.5

KJ Simpson Over 16.5 points

Cody Williams 12+ points

25% boost available

+270 +338 at DraftKings

In addition to my best bet on the Buffs against the spread, I’ll add two of their player props. The first is for lead guard KJ Simpson to exceed 16.5 points. He averages 19.3 ppg and has topped this number in 10 of 17 appearances. I would expect a strong showing here at home against a burnable Oregon defense. 

The last leg features freshman phenom Cody Williams to score at least 12 points, which is an alternative points scored prop available on DraftKings. He’s hit this mark in each of his last six games and the opportunity for him to continue scoring should be there going forward. He's a huge part of the Buffs’ offensive game plan as evidenced by his 22.8% usage rate, which is second on the team. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has moved around a bit, opening at Colorado -5.5 at some locations before jumping up to -6.5 across the board. It’s since dropped down to -5.5 and -6 depending on the location. 

Let’s take a look at the total, which is set at 148.5. Both teams have trended slightly to the Over as Oregon is 9-7 O/U while Colorado is 9-8 O/U. 

Oddsmakers have inflated this total in response to both team’s impressive offensive starts to the season. This total is five points higher than any of the last 10 matchups between these two teams — matchups that have resulted in a 5-5 O/U split.

I understand the expectation for points considering both teams have no trouble scoring the ball. Oregon averages 78.8 ppg while ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Colorado, as mentioned earlier, averages just over 80 ppg while ranking 38th in offensive efficiency. 

Still, it’s hard for me to consider an Over when we have a decent track record between these two coaches, and only three of the last 10 meetings have resulted in 149 total points or more. 

Oregon vs Colorado betting trend to know

Colorado is 7-3 ATS at home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Colorado.

Oregon vs Colorado game info

Oregon vs Colorado key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic