The North Carolina Tar Heels are not only pushing for an ACC tournament title but are also in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, surely impacting their March Madness odds. They get one step closer when they face the Pittsburgh Panthers in the semifinals tonight.
The Tar Heels enjoyed a two-round bye and blasted Florida State in their quarterfinal matchup, thumping the Seminoles by 25 points. North Carolina brings a seven-game winning streak into this matchup with Pitt.
The Panthers are perhaps the only team as hot as UNC right now, having won four straight and 10 of their last dozen games (10-1-1 ATS). Pitt extended that streak and punched its ticket to the ACC semis with an 81-69 win over Wake Forest on Wednesday.
I run down the ACC Tournament bracket for this semifinal matchup and give my free college basketball picks for Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina on March 15.
For more NCAAB coverage be sure to also check out our Conference Tournament odds page!
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina best odds
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina picks and predictions
The opener for this ACC tournament semifinal is a bit of a shocker. North Carolina is out there as low as -6.5 on Thursday night while some books are dealing the line as big as UNC -8.
There is such a massive gap between North Carolina and the rest of the ACC, and that’s amplified with the Tar Heels trying to score style points to impress the NCAA Selection Committee.
Right now, UNC is projected for a No. 2 seed, getting edged by Tennessee in the SEC. Not only does North Carolina have to win the ACC tournament to score a top seed in the Big Dance, but it has to crush whichever teams stand in its way.
We saw this in the quarterfinals against Florida State, with the Heels leaving the starters on the floor until the final five minutes despite holding a 27-point lead. North Carolina cruised past the closing spread of -11.5.
Pittsburgh on the other hand, closed as a two-point underdog to Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. The Panthers jumped out to a big lead early on, but crumbled in the second half and hung on for the win. The 81-69 final score doesn’t indicate how close this contest was in the second half.
Now books are dealing Pitt as short as +6.5 against one of the Top 5 teams in the country on a neutral court? Nah.
North Carolina is by far the toughest defense Pittsburgh has played since… well… losing to UNC 70-57 at home back on January 2. The Tar Heels rank No. 5 in defensive efficiency in the country and top the ACC in both effective field goal rate allowed and opponent 3-point shooting success.
The Panthers are dependent on making shots from beyond the arc, especially against a defense as tough inside at North Carolina. Pitt shot just 5-for-29 from distance in the home loss to UNC, which allows less than six makes from 3-point range in games away from Chapel Hill.
Early game models are calling for a seven-point win from the Tar Heels and I strongly believe the ceiling is much higher for North Carolina considering the step up in competition for Pitt and UNC’s desire to win — and win big.
My best bet: North Carolina -6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina same-game parlay
North Carolina -6.5
R.J. Davis Over 3.5 assists
Blake Hinson Over 2.5 made threes
Pitt was a two-point underdog to Wake Forest and then opened +6.5 against UNC. You’re telling me the Tar Heels are just 4.5 points better than Wake? North Carolina is out for blood and scoring style points to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA bracket.
The Tar Heels will pack the interior and force Pitt into some bad shots, leading to long rebounds and transition buckets. Davis is driving that bus with four or more dimes today.
As mentioned, the Panthers are dependent on 3-pointers. Pittsburgh won’t crack the UNC interior like it did against Wake Forest, and Hinson will be chucking it from deep as Pitt struggles to keep pace.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pittsburgh vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
Following Pitt’s win over Wake Forest, oddsmakers opened UNC anywhere from -6.5 to -7.5. Some books ticked up to -8 with early play on the Tar Heels.
North Carolina is head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC and beat up on Pitt 70-57 on its own floor back in early January, covering as four-point favorites.
The Tar Heels are anchored in an elite defense but have erupted offensively in recent outings, averaging 80.6 points over their current seven-game winning streak. North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in that stretch, including Wednesday’s squash of FSU as 11.5-point chalk.
Pittsburgh has been an ATM for ACC bettors, winning 10 of the last 12 games while boasting an 10-1-1 ATS mark in that span. The Panthers posted plenty of points in that span, but didn’t face the toughest slate of opponents — especially on the defensive end.
Friday’s Over/Under opened at 147.5 points.
North Carolina blasted the closing total of 158.5 points in the win over the Seminoles but has topped the total in just two of its last six games. The January 2 win at Pitt played Under the closing total of 158.5 points.
The Panthers’ quarterfinal win went Over the 144-point total and extended a run of Over results for Pitt, which has extended four straight games.
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina has covered the spread in 15 of its last 22 games.. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina.
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Pittsburgh vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Friday, March 15, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina key injuries
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