Providence vs St. John's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Red Storm’s Abundance of Depth Looms Large

The Providence Friars will look for their first win since losing one of their star players as they visit the St. John’s Red Storm on Wednesday night.

St. John’s (10-4) has won five of its last six games and is one of several teams near the top of the Big East standings. Meanwhile, Providence (11-4) has lost two straight since forward Bryce Hopkins tore his ACL last week.

What would have been a battle between two of the top contenders in the Big East has been fundamentally changed by that injury, with the Red Storm now posted as a significant favorite in the college basketball odds. We’ll break down the matchup in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Providence vs. St. John’s on January 10.

Providence vs St. John's best odds

Providence vs St. John's picks and predictions

The loss of Bryce Hopkins has left Providence with problems on both ends of the court. Since the injury, the Friars have shot only about 37% from the field, compared to 45.5% before he left the lineup. Head coach Kim English has also noted issues on the defensive end without the forward on the court.

Hopkins was averaging 15.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this season and had scored 20+ points on five different occasions. He’s been a relatively efficient post scorer, shooting 42.9% overall, and was on the court for nearly 34 minutes per game. That’s a level of production that’s difficult — if not impossible — to cover with depth.

St. John’s could have been the favorite in this game even before Hopkins went down, especially since the Red Storm are playing at home. Now, however, it’s clear that Providence is facing an uphill battle tonight.

The biggest issue is St. John’s center Joel Soriano, who is putting up 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per night, along with averaging 1.9 blocks per game. Soriano is both an intimidating post presence and a shooter who can extend the floor, even adding some occasional 3-point shooting to his game this season.

Providence already plays without a true center, and with Hopkins out, the Friars have one less post defender to throw at Soriano. Even if they do throw the kitchen sink at Soriano, St. John’s has four other players averaging over 10 points per game this year, and it should ultimately be that depth that proves too much for the Friars to handle.

I’m taking St. John’s to cover the spread at home tonight.

My best bet: St. John's -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Providence vs St. John's same-game parlay

St. John's -7.5

Joel Soriano Over 16.5 points

Josh Oduro Under 15.5 points

+390 at FanDuel

I like St. John’s to win tonight largely on the strength of Soriano, and that’s where I’ve focused my same-game parlay tonight. 

We’ll be combining our best bet with two scoring prop bets. First, I like Soriano to score Over 16.5 points, as he should dominate in the post against Providence and is a good pick to eclipse his season average.

On the other hand, Oduro may have trouble setting up in the post against Soriano and would have to exceed his typical game to hit his prop. I’m rounding out my SGP with an Under bet on Oduro at 15.5 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Providence vs St. John's spread and Over/Under analysis

St. John’s opened this game as a six-point favorite. That line has been pushed higher by bettors, and the consensus spread is now St. John’s -7.5, with -110 odds available on both sides at most books.

Both teams have been solid against the spread this season. The Red Storm has put up a 9-6 record against the spread, while Providence is 8-6-1 ATS.

Providence still hasn’t shown it can put together a complete game without Hopkins in the lineup, which is concerning on its own. When you add in the fact that the Friars don’t have a clear answer for Soriano and no longer have the kind of depth that could trouble the Red Storm, this looks like a game where the home team should dominate. I’m taking St. John’s and laying the points.

The total for this game opened at 143.5 points. The consensus Over/Under has risen to 146, with some sites offering 145.5 as the main total. Most sites are offering both sides of the market at -110, though I did see -105 on the Under at 145.5 available.

Providence has a clear trend against the total this year, with the Under going 11-3-1 when the Friars play. The Over holds a 9-6 advantage in St. John’s games so far this season.

While Providence has played below the number all year long, it seems to be moving even further toward the Under as of late. The Under has gone 5-1-1 in the Friars’ last seven games, and Providence has played to totals of Under 130 points in their two games since the Hopkins injury.

St. John’s does like to push the pace a bit, but not to an extent that makes me want to ignore that trend. I’m leaning towards a low-scoring affair tonight.

Providence vs St. John's betting trend to know

St. John’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Providence vs St. John's.

Providence vs St. John's game info

Providence vs St. John's key injuries

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