San Diego State vs Boise State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Go Extra Mile in Boise

Two teams chasing down the Mountain West title square off on Saturday when the San Diego State Aztecs visit the Boise State Broncos.

The Aztecs rebounded from their first conference loss of the year to beat Nevada last time out. They’re currently tied with Utah State atop the standings.

But they’re only a slight 1-point favorite in the college basketball odds against the Broncos, who stand second in Mountain West.  

See below as I offer a free preview into how San Diego State vs Boise State shakes out, complete with a best bet in our college basketball picks for Saturday, January 20.

San Diego State vs Boise State best odds

San Diego State vs Boise State picks and predictions

Boise State saw its four-game win streak come to an end last time out, losing to UNLV 68-64. 

Defense isn’t the problem for them, as the Broncos are currently 34th in the nation in scoring D, holding opponents to 64.9 points per game. In fact, they have held the opposition to 70 points or less in all but two games this season. UNLV shot 44.8% from the field, including a tough 6-for-18 from 3-point range, a 33.3% clip, to gut out the win.

Their offense, however, is struggling. Boise State ranks outside the Top-200 in scoring at 73.9 points per game, and they’ve gone sub-70 in four of their last six games.

They’ll be challenged by an Aztecs defense that ranks 73rd in the NCAA while allowing 66.8 points per game. San Diego State allows teams to shoot only 40.1% overall, which ranks 40th, and that includes a 29.1% mark from downtown, inside the Top-25 in college hoops.

After getting hammered 88-70 against New Mexico State — just their third loss all season — the Aztecs found their way to a 71-59 win over the Nevada Wolf Pack. That makes it eight times in their last 12 they’ve held an opponent to 62 points or fewer.

SDSU is above average in scoring at 76.6 points per game, but it’s somewhat deceiving, as they rank 257th in 3-point shooting at 32.1% and just inside the Top-200 in shooting at 44.6%. They make up for it with a Top-40 mark in both free-throw attempts (23.2) and makes (16.8).

It’s clear where you should be going on this one. While Boise State has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, the Under has hit in six straight meetings, and only one of those totals was set higher than Saturday’s 136.5.

With Boise State 223rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and San Diego State way down at 262, this has all the makings of a drag-out, possession-by-possession rock fight.

My best bet: Under 136.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

San Diego State vs Boise State same-game parlay

Under 136.5

Chibuzo Agbo Over 1.5 3s

Jaedon LeDee Under 19.5 points

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+375 at DraftKings

Let’s up the stakes and add a couple of props to build a three-leg, same-game parlay.

Chibuzo Agbo is the Broncos’ top marksman from deep, hitting at an impressive 44.7% rate, and he’s been given a modest 1.5 line for 3-point makes against the Aztecs Saturday.

He’s coming off a 2-for-7 performance behind the arc against UNLV, and he’s hit at least two triples in eight of his last 10 games. The two that he went Under were 1-for-2 performances, so he was in the ballpark.

Even with SDSU’s strong 3-point defense, a player making a couple of triples isn’t uncommon.

During their current 8-1 run, only one team hasn’t had a player make at least two 3-pointers. Across the other eight games, no less than 15 players drilled at least a pair of moneyballs.

To close, I’m targeting Aztecs senior forward Jaedon LeDee, who currently sits eighth in the nation in scoring at 21.6 points per game.

It’s been a career year for the Houston native, as he’s never averaged more than 7.9 points per game across his first four years at three different schools. As a reserve on last year’s team that made it all the way to the national championship game, LeDee didn’t crack 10 points against the Broncos.

But now, as a starter pulling a career high 32.4 minutes per game, he’s expected to deliver, especially in games where scoring could be hard to come by.

This one is tough, though, as Boise State hasn’t given up a 20-point scorer in the last three, and they’re inside the Top-30 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric.

I think LeDee gets close but settles just slightly Under the 19.5-point line.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Diego State vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread started out as a pick’em, though it moved slightly, with odds not yet cracking the 2-point spread. 

These are two average cover teams, as SDSU is just 7-9-0 against the spread this year, with BSU checking in at 7-7-0.

As for the total, it’s hit a high of 137.5, and has never dipped below 136. The Under 7-3-0 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

The Aztecs have seen the Over go 9-7-0 in their games, while the Broncos have an Over record of 7-8-0.

San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend to know

Boise State has won 22 of its last 23 games at ExtraMile Arena. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State.

San Diego State vs Boise State game info

San Diego State vs Boise State key injuries

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