St. John's vs Marquette Odds, Picks and Predictions: Joplin Jumpstarts Golden Eagles Offense

St. John’s will hope to add an important win to its bubble resume when the Red Storm takes on the Marquette Golden Eagles on Saturday evening. The college basketball odds have the Golden Eagles favored to win by 7.5 points.

The Red Storm are on the edge of the field according to most bracketologists, and losing three of their last five hasn’t helped matters. They’ll be particularly frustrated by not pulling off the upset over Marquette a few weeks ago, as they lost by a single point despite dominating on the offensive glass.

For Marquette, the focus is on staying in the hunt for the Big East title. The Golden Eagles enter the weekend 2.5 games back of UConn, and with two meetings still to come between the two programs they’ll want to be in position to move ahead of the Huskies. They’re on a six-game winning streak, four of which have come away from home.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for St. John’s vs. Marquette on Saturday, February 10 breaks down the matchups and identifies the player prop most likely to bring you profit from what should be an entertaining contest.

St. John's vs Marquette best odds

St. John's vs Marquette picks and predictions

David Joplin has seen a marked increase in his usage rate over Marquette’s last five games versus the earlier portions of the season. He’s had a usage rate of 22.0 or higher in all five contests after having just six games over 20.0 during his first 17 games and a usage rate below 15.0 in eight of those contests. As a result, his point totals have been increasing as well.

He’s put 12 or more points on the scoresheet in all five games, including 21 against DePaul and 20 in the win over Seton Hall. The first of those five games was the one-point victory over St. John’s, a game in which he didn’t play particularly well at the offensive end. It was the only game in that span in which he shot less than 40% from the floor, as he made five of his 13 shots from the floor including a 3-for-7 mark from downtown.

What’s helped is Joplin’s increased aggressiveness. He’s still a volume-shooter from the outside, but he’s gotten to the free throw line at a much higher clip. Over his last five games, he’s attempted 18 shots from the line — after attempting just 19 in his previous 17 games combined.

St. John’s ranks 62nd in 2-point percentage on defense, but ranks 243rd in free throw rate defense. In fact, an increase in fouls at the defensive end has been a contributing factor to St. John’s struggles of late.

In addition, Marquette ranks 52nd in 3-point percentage, and Joplin is hitting at a 41.3% clip this season from downtown. That number is even better at home, where he’s making nearly 43% on the season.

Between an increased emphasis on getting to the rim and his excellent 3-point shooting, I love Joplin to once again have 12 or more points. Most books have his line at 12.5, but you can go to DraftKings and take his alternate total of 12+ points. While I’m not a big fan of the juice, I’ll take it to avoid going up another point.

My best bet: David Joplin 12+ points (-125 at DraftKings)

St. John's vs Marquette same-game parlay

David Joplin 12+ points

Tyler Kolek Over 7.5 assists

Marquette -3.5 1H

+385 at DraftKings

Tyler Kolek handed out 11 assists in that first meeting, one of three instances over his last six games in which he’s dealt out exactly 11 dimes. In the other three games he had at least seven, and has eight or more helpers in six of his last seven games. I’ll gladly take Over 7.5 here.

St. John’s has trailed by four or more points at halftime in each of its last three road games, and needed a 14-4 run at home to lead Marquette by six at the break in the first game. With their foul troubles of late, and Marquette being at home, I’ll take the Red Storm to trail at halftime by at least four points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John's vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis

Marquette is a 7.5-point favorite in this contest, a number it sits at across the board after opening at between -6.5 and -8.5 at different books.

The Golden Eagles have covered in three straight and five of their last six, including three of the last four as favorites. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five at home.

St. John’s has gone 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games. However, it’s just 2-4 ATS over the last six, and has lost two straight as underdogs. The Red Storm have also failed to cover in their last two on the road, including losing by 15 at Seton Hall despite being favored.

Marquette is playing exceptionally well of late, and will be cognizant of the rebounding issues from the first game. St. John’s ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebound rate, but just 281st in defensive rebound rate. If the Golden Eagles can limit their opponent’s second-chance opportunities, they have a strong shot to cover.

The total for this game has moved up from its opening mark of 152, with 152.5 and 153 on offer as of early Saturday afternoon. The two teams combined for just 145 points in the first meeting.

St. John’s has seen the Under hit in six of its last seven games, including the first matchup which featured a total of 157.5 points. Most of those Unders came with totals lower than the one we have for this contest.

On the other side, Marquette bettors have seen mixed results. The last eight games have evenly split and rotated between Over and Under, but Marquette has scored 85 or more points in three of its last four games. Additionally, the Under is 22-11 in its last 33 contests.

Marquette ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage, and 46th in turnover rate. The Golden Eagles also rank 10th in 2-point field goal percentage, and are going against a St. John’s defense that excels in that area behind the 14th-most blocked shots in the country. However, Marquette’s superior 3-point percentage could be what pushes this Over, should the outside shots fall.

St. John's vs Marquette betting trend to know

The Under is 22-11 in Marquette’s last 33 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. Marquette.

St. John's vs Marquette game info

St. John's vs Marquette key injuries

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