The St. John's Red Storm face off against the Providence Friars in college basketball action tonight.
The Friars have struggled on offense, and my St. John's vs Providence predictions expect that to continue tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big East battle on December 20.
St. John's vs Providence prediction
My best bet
Providence team total Under 68.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
It's tough to handicap a game when you don't know the status of a team's best player. That's the case today with the Providence Friar's best player, Bryce Hopkins, likely a game-time decision. The high-scoring forward has missed nine of 12 games after recovering from a torn ACL.
Hopkins led Providence with 19 points in its December 10 win against DePaul but sat out the last game, a close loss to St. Bonaventure, with lingering knee soreness. Ultimately, even with Hopkins, the Friars will have a tough time eclipsing their team total, and without him, that becomes significantly less likely.
After all, the Friars averaged just 67.7 ppg while shooting 41.5% from the floor over their last three games. Those contests came against St. Bonaventure, DePaul, and Rhode Island, who aren't anywhere near the same level defensively as the St. John's Red Storm.
The Johnnies sit 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding four of their last six opponents below 67 points. The two opponents that went above were inefficient on offense but played at a fast pace, which led to a pair of up-tempo games.
On the other hand, the Friars are 339th in the country in adjusted tempo and sit outside the Top 200 in field goal percentage (43%) and turnover rate (17.8%).
That will make it tough for them to score against a St. John's side 41st in opponent field goal percentage (39.8%) and 42nd in opponent turnover rate (20.9%).
St. John's vs Providence same-game parlay
Providence team total Under 67.5
St. John's team total Under 74.5
Zuby Ejiofor 7+ rebounds
I expect Providence to struggle with the ball, but I also think the Johnnies might have a tough time on offense in their first true road game of the season.
The Johnnies are at their best when they can play an up-tempo style and run the floor in transition, but Providence can slow things down to a crawl. St. John's is just 237th in the country in half-court efficiency per ShotQualityBets and will have a tough time generating points against the Friars, who are 21st in opponent 2-point percentage (43.8%).
Ejiofor has pulled down seven or more rebounds in eight consecutive games and is averaging 9.4 rpg during that span. The former four-star recruit has seen his playing time surge this season and should see plenty of minutes against a Providence squad that has a pair of true centers to deal with.
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St. John's vs Providence odds
St. John's vs Providence live odds
St. John's vs Providence opening odds
- Spread: St. John's -6 | Providence +6
- Moneyline: St. John's -260 | Providence +210
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
St. John's vs Providence betting trend to know
The Friars have hit the team total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+4.83 Units / 23% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. Providence.
How to watch St. John's vs Providence
| Location: | Amica Mutual Pavillion, Providence, RI |
| Date: | Friday, 12-20-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
St. John's vs Providence key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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