Sitting in a tie atop the Big 12 standings, the 10th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones have been rolling, winners of three straight and six of seven.
Their guard should be up, however, Saturday afternoon, when they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, a team that’s undoubtedly the wild card of the conference.
After falling out of the Top 25 with three straight losses, Texas Tech moved into a tie for second in the Big 12 picture with a 29-point thrashing of sixth-ranked Kansas, though it’s still a lengthy 7.5-point road dog in the college basketball odds.
Does Iowa State make it a perfect 15-0 at home Saturday? Check out my free Texas Tech vs Iowa State college basketball picks for February 17.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State best odds
Texas Tech vs Iowa State picks and predictions
Yet again, it was the Cyclones’ defense that made the difference last time out, hitting the road and tripping up the Cincinnati Bearcats 68-59.
Iowa State forced 25 turnovers that it converted into 26 points, while also holding Cincy to 38% shooting from the field and allowing just 14 points in the paint.
The Cyclones boast one of the top defenses in the country, with KenPom ranking them third in defensive efficiency, looking up at only Rutgers and Houston.
They allow a measly 62 points per game, which ranks sixth in the nation, limiting teams to a paltry 40.3% shooting from the field, which ranks 26th.
And yet, none of that matters when dealing with the Red Raiders, who have had a roller coaster of a Big 12 slate. The Red Raiders opened the conference schedule with four wins in their first five, with wins over ranked teams Texas, BYU and Oklahoma.
Then came the three straight L’s with 25th TCU and 13th-ranked Baylor among the losses. After breaking the streak against UCF, Texas Tech had its biggest win of the year, crushing Kansas 79-50.
Even if Kansas was missing Big 12 leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr, the Red Raiders were relentless, holding the Jayhawks to 32.7% shooting from the field, including a 3-for-16 mark from 3-point range.
The Red Raiders pounded them on the glass, winning the rebound battle 42-26, which helped them to a +8 advantage in points in the paint.
This sudden showing is particularly troublesome for Cyclones fans because the Red Raiders have dominated this head-to-head, winning eight of the last 10, and covering all but one of those games — eight as a betting favorite and one as an underdog.
Iowa State is a Top-70 scoring school, putting up 78.6 points per game, but it’s just two points better than what the Red Raiders are scoring.
I’m sticking with the recent trends and looking for the Red Raiders to stay in range.
My best bet: Texas Tech +7.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Texas Tech vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Texas Tech +7.5
Darrion Williams Over 9.5 points
Tamin Lipsey Over 12.5 points
If there’s ever been a non-believer line set, it has to be for Texas Tech guard Darrion Williams.
The sophomore guard is coming off an historic effort in the win over Kansas, scoring a career-high 30 points on 12-of-12 shooting, while grabbing 11 rebounds.
The 12 field goals without a miss were the most ever for a Texas Tech player, and according to ESPN Stats, he’s the first NCAA player in the last 25 seasons with 30 points, 10 rebounds and a perfect shooting percentage against a ranked opponent.
Even then, the books have his scoring total set at 9.5 points, for a guy that has crossed this total in three straight games, and is averaging 10.3 points a game this season.
While Williams won’t come close to that number, he should still factor in this contest.
It’s been a yo-yo kind of run of late for Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey. The sophomore has alternated between single-digit and double-digit scoring in each of his last six games, the most recent a 15-point effort in the win over the Bearcats.
However, I like him breaking the streak here, if only barely. Lipsey is the second-leading scorer on the Cyclines, dropping 13.3 points per contest, and has scored 10+ points in 11 of 14 home games on the season.
He has passed his 12.5-point line in nine of those.
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Texas Tech vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis
The lowest this line has gone is 6.5 points, hitting a high of 8.5.
Iowa State is one of the solid cover teams in the nation, sporting a 16-7-1 mark against the spread, and an impressive 12-2 ATS home record.
Texas Tech hovers around the .500 mark, going 11-12-1 ATS.
When you have two teams inside the Top 80 scoring defenses in the country, the books won’t likely let a line cross 140 points. In this case, the high is 138 points.
Texas Tech has seen the Over go 15-9-0 in their games this year, while the Cyclones have an Over record of 13-11-0.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State betting trend to know
The Over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head matchups. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.
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Texas Tech vs Iowa State game info
| Location: | James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, February 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Big 12 Network |
Texas Tech vs Iowa State key injuries
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