Texas Tech vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Washington Hunts Frogs

Grant McCasland’s No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders look to stay atop the conference standings as they head to Fort Worth to battle the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs. 

TCU returns home after back-to-back road wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor to make it four victories in its last six games. 

Texas Tech is one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 11 of its last 12 games with its sole defeat coming on the road against No. 4 Houston.

The Red Raiders have been defying the odds at every turn and will have to do so again here as a road underdog. Looking at college basketball odds, the Horned Frogs are 4.5-point favorites while the total resides at 148.5.

I’ve circled a Texas Tech player prop that stands out as tonight’s best bet. Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. TCU on Tuesday, January 30.

Texas Tech vs TCU best odds

Texas Tech vs TCU picks and predictions

The Texas Tech Red Raiders were not supposed to be atop the nation’s best conference. They were picked eighth in the Big 12 Preseason Poll after finishing at .500 with a 16-16 record a year ago, but first-year head coach Grant McCasland has his squad vastly outperforming expectations.

McCasland is a perennial winner with a 68.1% winning percentage across seven-plus years — one with Arkansas State (20-12), six with North Texas (136-65), and now with Texas Tech. This year’s iteration is on a heater, as its only loss since November 30 was on the road against Houston, KenPom’s No. 1 team in the country. 

The Red Raiders followed that defeat with an 85-78 home win over BYU behind guard Pop Isaacs’ 32 points. Most recently, they won an 85-84 nail-biter on the road over Oklahoma thanks to guard Chance McMillan’s 27 points off the bench.

They check into Tuesday’s matchup ranked 26th overall in KenPom — 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 67th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Shooting has been the calling card as they convert from downtown at 36.8% and from the line at 77.8%. 

The bookmakers aren’t fully buying in, establishing the Red Raiders as a 4.5-point underdog on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs. Jamie Dixon’s squad has won four of its last six games including impressive resume-boosters over Oklahoma, Houston, and Baylor. 

The Baylor victory came this last Saturday in thrilling fashion — a 105-102 win in Waco after three overtimes. Guard Jameer Nelson Jr. led the way with 30 points off the bench while Emanuel Miller filled it up again with 21 points. 

The Horned Frogs have the narrowest of analytic advantages, checking into this matchup 23rd overall in KenPom. They’re a balanced team that ranks 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Offensively, Dixon’s squad likes to attack the cup. They take 47% of their shots at the rim (17th-highest nationally, per Hoop-Math) while attempting just 18.5 3-pointers per game. 

That makes this a fascinating matchup against a Texas Tech defense that typically walls off the rim. Just 30.7% of opponents field goal attempts come at the rim, the 20th-lowest figure nationally. A pair of Arizona State imports in Warren Washington and Devan Cambridge lead this effort, combining to average 2.7 blocks per game. 

Washington’s presence will loom large on the offensive end as well. TCU’s defense has a notable lack of paint protection, allowing 44.8% of opponent looks to come at the rim (17th-highest nationally). Perhaps that’s to be expected when no player averaging over 17 minutes per game stands above 6-foot-7. 

Most recently, Baylor big man Yves Missi dropped 25 points and nine rebounds to expose this TCU interior. He hasn’t been the only one to take advantage — Houston’s J’Wan Roberts had 20 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks, while Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson had 30 points and 11 rebounds.

Washington hasn’t been getting off the court much, handling 34.8 minutes per game across his last five games while averaging 12.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. He’s been handed a larger workload, and I don’t expect his coach’s trust in him to suddenly dissipate, considering he’s been a big part of his team’s recent success. 

I expect another productive outing here in a pace-up game against a TCU team that ranks 64th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) and has a faulty interior. I’ll take Washington to go Over his points prop of 11.5 as my best bet for this ranked-on-ranked matchup.

My best bet: Warren Washington Over 11.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings)

Texas Tech vs TCU same-game parlay

Warren Washington Over 11.5 Points 

Texas Tech +5 

+234 at DraftKings

Here’s a two-leg SGP featuring my best bet on Washington’s point prop Over combined with the Red Raiders against the spread. 

Texas Tech +5 is available at a few locations, including DraftKings Sportsbook. I find that difficult to pass up considering both teams have played in a lot of close games lately and there isn’t much separating these two squads on paper, meaning we could be in for another squeaker. 

Each of TCU’s last five games, and six of its last seven, have been decided by five points or fewer. Most recently, it was so deadlocked with Baylor that it took three overtimes to decide a winner. 

Texas Tech has also played with some narrow margins as two of its last four games have been decided by a single point (1-point wins over both Kansas State and Oklahoma). Only two teams sit between the Red Raiders (26th) and the Horned Frogs (23rd) in KenPom, so it’s hard for me to see either running away with a one-sided victory. 

Recent history points toward the road dog as Tech is 9-3-1 ATS across its last 13 visits to Forth Worth.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas Tech vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis

Texas Tech opened at +5.5 but there has been some buy back to +4.5 as of early Tuesday morning, while +5 is also available. Be sure to shop around and to track future fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager. 

The total has been dropped a bit from 150 at open to 148.5 as of writing. 

That’s interesting considering both teams have played to the Over this season. Texas Tech is 12-7 O/U while TCU is 11-9 O/U. 

Looking at the head-to-head history, seven of the last 10 meetings have cashed the Over. What’s different here is that this line is much different than in years past, mostly as a result of Tech’s changed philosophy. This total is four points more than any of those matchups. 

The uptick in the number has me willing to consider an argument for the Under. After all, it does grab my attention when the opening total is 5.5 points higher than it has been in any of the last 10 matchups. 

TCU likes to get to the rim offensively and draw fouls, but that plays into what Texas Tech does well defensively. The Red Raiders wall off the rim and are excellent at avoiding fouls, ranking seventh nationally while allowing just 13.4 free throw attempts per game. 

On the flip side, Texas Tech operates at a slow tempo (267th) and has relied on tremendous shotmaking to average 77.2 ppg. The sheer efficiency of that shot-making is more difficult to rely on in a tough road environment. TCU has had 10 home games and in nine of those it held its opponent below its season-long points per game average. 

Texas Tech vs TCU betting trend to know

TCU is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 home games against Texas Tech. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. TCU.

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