Villanova vs Georgetown Odds, Picks and Predictions: Burton Exposes Abysmal Hoyas Defense

Villanova and Georgetown get a Big East affair going on Friday night in the nation's capital.

Nova has been on an impressive streak against the Hoyas. It's 9-1 against them since 2020, and they will be looking to extend that streak to 10-1 today. A win would break a streak of four road losses for the Wildcats. Making that happen is likely a must if they want any hope of making the NCAA Tournament. If the dance started today, Villanova would be very much on the outside looking in.

As expected, it's been a trying season for Georgetown. Aspirations are high under first-year head coach Ed Cooley, but it will take some time to get there. The Hoyas will arrive here in a miserable stretch of basketball, losing nine straight games. The most recent loss came against Creighton in a game that was never close.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give out our college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, February 16.

Villanova vs Georgetown best odds

Villanova vs Georgetown picks and predictions

A team may not have taken a more significant downswing in the last month than the Georgetown Hoyas. Some of the best evidence of this is what Bart Torvik says about them over the previous month. Using the website's projections, on the season, the Villanova Wildcats should be about an 8-point favorite in this one. However, limit that to what we've seen for the last month, and that number balloons to 21. Head coach Ed Cooley knows the previous month has been a rough one, too. 

"Many of us are in a situation where you could easily put your head down given what we're going through, but that's part of the process for growth and development," Cooley said after his team's most recent defeat to Creighton.

Unfortunately for Cooley, that growth and development will likely be accompanied by more negative experiences in the future than positive ones. It's often said you need to hit rock bottom before going back up. After allowing the league's highest points and FG percentage in conference play, you may be tempted to think Georgetown has hit that rock bottom, but I'm not so sure. Considering that, I'm taking Villanova to cover -9.5 as my best bet. It's a nice edge against my projection of -12. 

Before asking why Villanova would cover this number, I'm asking why one would back Georgetown to cover it. 

Over the last month, this team has shown more signs of being finished with the season rather than putting forward any effort to fight. It's lost three of its last four games by double-digits, and how they happened spoke loudly. They are usually all involved in one run with little to no response. I wonder if we see something similar here. If Nova is about to have a quick burst out of the gates, will the Hoyas have any interest in responding?

Villanova isn't going to destroy Georgetown in transition like most teams because they are less efficient there than most. However, they can more than make up for that in other places. 

One of those places is where the Hoyas struggle to defend the most, which is against cutting actions. They'll enter this game in the Bottom 3% of the country against cutters and easily the worst in the Big East. That's a problem against the Cats. Strong cutting and motion are the cornerstones of its offense, and they should be able to exploit these issues here.

Tyler Burton and Hakim Hart are two of the best cutters in the country, and they should be able to have a field day in this matchup. 

On the other hand, I'm expecting this Georgetown team to generate even less offense than usual. Those rankings I mentioned have the Cats as the Top 30 defense over the last month. If you had to point out a strength of this team, it would be that side of the ball. When you struggle to defend them, it will make hanging with them twice as hard, and we will see that play out tonight.

Back Nova tonight. This team can't afford any slip-ups and has a great matchup offensively. Expect this Wildcats team to jump out early and not look back.

My best bet: Villanova -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Villanova vs Georgetown same-game parlay

Villanova -9.5

Tyler Burton Over 8.5 points

+200 at bet365

For tonight's same-game parlay, we're taking our best bet and pairing it with the best angle from this game.

Tyler Burton should be a significant offensive factor tonight. The biggest matchup advantage for either team here is Villanova against Georgetown's horrid cutting defense.

Burton has excelled in similar situations this season, and I expect the trend to continue here. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Villanova vs Georgetown spread and Over/Under analysis

Villanova has too much offensive firepower for a team with little interest in continuing to battle this season. Our best bet is for Nova to get the cover, and even outside of the strategic advantages, the situational aspect of things favors them highly, too. 

It simply takes a lot of work for Georgetown to match the motivation here. Villanova will be fighting to ensure it gets an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. There's nothing left in the season for them to play for beyond pride, and I'm dubious about how far it will take them tonight.

I projected a decent edge on this total and played Over 140.5. My number came in at 147.5, and that's just too much of an edge to pass up.

We've covered to a great degree the offensive advantages that Villanova has in this one. While I expect Georgetown to have some offensive issues, there should be enough here for them to reach the mid-60s, and that's all we'll need to get this one Over.

The Hoyas are on a big run of Overs. Three straight games have gone that way for Georgetown, and eight of the last 10 overall. I'd expect that to continue here. 

Villanova vs Georgetown betting trend to know

Villanova has won nine of the last 10 matchups against Georgetown. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Georgetown.

Villanova vs Georgetown game info

Villanova vs Georgetown key injuries

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