The Villanova Wildcats and Georgetown Hoyas are sitting in the middle of the Big East standings, aiming to improve their seeding position before the conference tournament tips off next week.
These classic rivals met back in January, with the Hoyas stealing a win in Philadelphia in a tight, low-scoring contest. My Villanova vs. Georgetown predictions and college basketball picks expect another nail-biter with postseason intensity, keeping points at a premium on Tuesday, March 4.
Villanova vs Georgetown prediction
My best bet
Under 143 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Villanova Wildcats and Georgetown Hoyas combined for 127 points on January 20, staying well below the closing total of 136 points. Tonight’s Over/Under is up to 143 points, which is asking a lot considering the makeup of this matchup.
Villanova has shown a larger output on offense in recent games, and those contests came at home where the Wildcats thrive (77.9 ppg on 58.4% eFG). However, away from Philly, Villanova has had issues replicating that attack.
As a visitor, the Wildcats have cracked the 70-point bar just once in their last seven road games and watch their shooting sink to 51.5% eFG on the road. That difference in scoring success shows in the Over/Under splits, with Villanova boasting an 11-5-1 O/U count at home versus a 4-6 O/U record on the road.
The Hoyas march forward without one of their key pieces after losing starting big man Thomas Sober last month. The 6-foot-10 NBA prospect was a force on both ends of the floor, averaging 14.5 points while playing the role of rim protector and rebounder on defense.
The freshman standout had 15 points and 11 rebounds versus Villanova in the first game between these schools, and his absence leaves Georgetown without a reliable inside presence. And while losing a shot changer like Sober is a knock to Georgetown's defense, with the Hoyas watching foes’ eFG spike without him, his absence lets Nova play its snail's pace style of basketball.
Sober’s presence in the paint allowed the Hoyas to pressure the perimeter in either man or 3-2 zone, knowing he was backing them up. That aggressive approach put Georgetown among the better teams at collecting steals and forcing turnovers — then scoring off those miscues — in the Big East.
Villanova shot just 12-for-30 on 2-point attempts in that initial meeting with the Hoyas, who forced 16 turnovers and flipped those into 16 points.
But without that anchor in the key, Georgetown can’t play with its heels above the 3-point arc and the Wildcats can implement their pace and score at the rim without Sober deterring dribble penetration. Villanova runs one of the slowest tempos in the country and drags its offensive possessions deep into the shot clock.
Game models range from 138 points to 143 with the majority of those forecasts below the current Over/Under of 143 points. My number comes out to 139.5 points for this Big East battle.
Villanova vs Georgetown same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 143.5
Micah Peavy Under 19.5 points
Villanova moneyline
The Wildcats offense isn’t great on the road but it will be able to run it’s slowed-down tempo and methodically attack the Hoyas defense.
Peavy has stepped up his scoring since Sober went down but he thrives in transition and collecting points off fastbreaks, which isn’t in the cards tonight.
Game projections call for another close contest between these programs, with most models giving the nod to the Wildcats on the road.
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Villanova vs Georgetown odds
Villanova vs Georgetown live odds
Villanova vs Georgetown opening odds
- Spread: Villanova -3.5 | Georgetown +3.5
- Moneyline: Villanova -167 | Georgetown +142
- Over/Under: Over 143 | Under 143
Odds courtesy of bet365
Villanova vs Georgetown betting trend to know
Georgetown has gone Under the total in 19 of its last 32 games (+4.70 Units/13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Georgetown.
How to watch Villanova vs Georgetown
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Villanova vs Georgetown key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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