The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Virginia Cavaliers will get Day 2 of the ACC tournament rolling this afternoon.
This is a rematch from earlier this season, where the Cavaliers had one of their best offensive games and won by double-digits. That win was part of a larger dominance over Georgia Tech, with 10 straight head-to-head wins. My Virginia vs. Georgia Tech predictions isolate Dai Dai Ames as a key contributor toward that trend continuing today.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12th.
Virginia vs Georgia Tech prediction
Who will win Virginia vs Georgia Tech?
Both teams have "ifs" attached. Virginia just has fewer of them. With two coaches with minimal experience in postseason games, I'm leaning on the team that has the most natural advantages to get the win. Virginia will exploit a poor 3-point defense just enough to take care of business.
My best bet
Dai Dai Ames Over 1.5 threes (+150 at bet365)
My analysis
Naturally, with the Virginia Cavaliers and their glacial pace involved, you'd be attracted to the Under in a spot like this. That holds more true when you think about the early trends we saw in the Spectrum Center yesterday.
Both tournament games played in regulation went quickly Under, and it would have been all three had California vs Virginia Tech not gone to double overtime. However, I'm suspicious of that angle here. This total is nearly right with my model projection, and there was a reason this game soared over the 129-point total in the first matchup these two played.
Both teams were hot from three in that game, comfortably shooting over 40% from deep. Is that sustainable? Either team having a big shooting night is likelier than usual because the teams have almost identical offensive advantages. I'm only going to talk about one, Virginia's. It's got me headed to the prop market for Dai Dai Ames hitting Over 1.5 threes.
Georgia Tech will struggle to defend against attacks and kicks today for two reasons.
One, they rank in the bottom 25% of basketball defensively against them and allow over a point per possession. Two, almost no team in college basketball runs such sets at a higher clip than Virginia, which ranks in the 95th percentile of frequency.
I could have gone plenty of directions here but ultimately landed on Ames because I suspect that sharpshooter Isaac McKneely will garner even more attention in this matchup. Earlier this year, he scored 20 points against Tech with four threes. That should free Ames up a little more. But, in addition to that, the matchup suits him.
In the last 10 games, Virginia has played six opponents who rank below average defensively at defending these sets. Ames went over this 3-point total in five of them. The price is too much when you factor in those aspects. I'd play it down to +100.
Virginia vs Georgia Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Dai Dai Ames Over 1.5 threes
Virginia moneyline
In all actuality, there's not much to separate these teams, but this is highly correlated, and we're getting the benefit of a true price. We're also getting better defense with a team that still has the DNA of postseason success.
Ames' scoring success usually means Virginia is winning basketball games. In games where Ames has hit two or more threes, the Cavs have gone 7-1. I'm willing to buy into that trend at the correct price point.
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Virginia vs Georgia Tech odds
Virginia vs Georgia Tech live odds
Virginia vs Georgia Tech opening odds
- Spread: Virginia +1 (-110) | Georgia Tech -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia -105 | Georgia Tech -115
- Over/Under: Over 130.5 (-110) | Under 130.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Virginia vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know
Georgia Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Georgia Tech.
How to watch Virginia vs Georgia Tech
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Virginia vs Georgia Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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