Xavier vs Butler Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Scoring Suffers in Third Bout Between Rivals

In what is expected to be one of the most competitive groupings in the conference tournament odds, the Xavier Musketeers and Butler Bulldogs will open up the Big East Tournament bracket this afternoon. It should follow suit; it should be a highly competitive affair as well. 

Butler is a dangerous team heading into this tournament. While it would likely need something like a run to the final to make it, there's still a possibility the Bulldogs could play themselves into the March Madness odds conversation without winning it.

Butler arrives here off of two straight wins over Depaul and, ironically enough, Xavier, as the last game of the regular season for them will be the first for them in this conference tournament. For the Musketeers, this season has been a disappointment. The end-of-the-year play has yet to do much to help that, either. Entering the tournament, Xavier lost two straight and will look to put that behind them.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give it in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 13th.

Xavier vs Butler best odds

Xavier vs Butler picks and predictions

In many ways, this game feels like a coin flip. 

Even with the lopsided record differentials, these teams split their two regular-season meetings, which is why my projections make this a one-point spread. Picking a winner is further complicated because both coaches have won at a high level and are coming into an environment where you're wondering how they'll react. Those coaches above expect a challenging game, too.  

With the difficulty of separating the sides at the forefront of this handicap, I was looking elsewhere for value in this matchup and headed to the total for that. 

For starters, each team in this game feels undervalued on the defensive end. They both rank in the Top 50 of efficiency, an area they've both improved in throughout the season. If you filter the Bart Torvik rankings to just the start of February, each team sees a 10-place boost in defensive efficiency. I expect that to show here.

Each team has the unique ability to cut off its opponents' primary early offensive actions. The Bulldogs get a decent chunk of their offense off screens. Over the last few games, they have relied on a steady dose of around 25% of their offense from those sets in the form of DJ Davis and Pierre Brooks. That won't happen in this matchup. Xavier is one of the best in the conference when it comes to "off-screen" defense and has ranked in the Top 15% of college basketball in that category, holding opponents to .788 points per possession on such sets. With a total of 150, we're asking for a little here. 

On the other side of the ball, the opposing offense has even more issues.

Xavier wants to space opponents out and let its shooters put the defense in challenging positions. It's done a pretty good job of it this season and is unlucky to have the record it does. That's going to be tough sledding against Butler, who was fourth in the Big East in spot-up defense. Xavier scored below its season average in games against teams in the conference that ranked similarly around them.

In the two matchups this season, the totals were split much like the results — one with Over and one with Under. I believe the second matchup was a more precise indication of the shooting you'll see here. Both teams can slow or shut down their primary offense in the halfcourt, so I am comfortable taking the Under.

My best bet: Under 150.5 (-110 at bet365)

Xavier vs Butler same-game parlay

Under 150.5

Butler moneyline

+272 at bet365

We're going about as conventional as it gets for this same-game parlay and pairing Butler's moneyline with the Under.

Butler has played much better than Xavier to end the season and has some critical indicators in efficiency that suggest it could make some noise overall in this tournament. Although some of its offense may be slowed down here, there are more apparent routes to its consistent scoring, and thus, we like them to take care of business. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Xavier vs Butler spread and Over/Under analysis

There's a clear distinction between how these teams have played over the last few weeks, and the eye test follows suit. Aside from some of the offensive advantages we discussed for the Bulldogs, I worry about where Xavier finds enough offense and when its shots need to follow. Xavier is a reasonably free-throw-reliant team, and Butler fouls at one of the lowest rates in the country. 

Seven straight games have gone Under for Butler, and the one before the run of seven landed directly on the number. Butler does a pretty good job of controlling the terms and tempo of this matchup, so it stands to reason to think it continues that trend of another low-scoring output. 

Xavier vs Butler betting trend to know

Butler has hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Xaviers vs. Butler.

Xavier vs Butler game info

Xavier vs Butler key injuries

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