Zach Edey Props & Odds: Edey Eats Up the Wolfpack

Prop bet #1: Power of Edey

Zach Edey has been a monster in the middle for Purdue, leading the country with 25.0 points per game on 62.4% shooting while adding 12.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks.

It's worth pointing out Edey's scoring numbers were actually a bit suppressed at times during the regular season because he would see his playing time limited in blowout wins. However, Edey has logged 38 and 39 minutes in each of the last two rounds and I expect him to log plenty of playing time in a game of this magnitude.

It's no surprise we've seen Edey's numbers rise during the postseason, especially in games that are more competitive. Over the last 10 games, the Purdue center is averaging 29.7 ppg and 13.6 rpg. The O/U for Edey's points is set at 26.5 and he has gone Over that number in eight of his last 10 games.

In one of the games where he went below this number he had 21 points at halftime against Utah State but barely played in the second half since Purdue pulled away. The spread is set at -9.5 for today's clash but I'm expecting a competitive game which should lead to plenty of minutes and points for Edey.  

Points prop: Over 26.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Total too high

Out of all my Edey bets this is the lowest confidence play I have and is more of a response to the line movement which has pushed the opening O/U on his rebounds from 13.5 to 14.5. Even in his recent surge in productivity over the last month, Edey has gone below this number in seven of his last 10 games.

Since the start of the New Year, Edey has pulled down 15+ rebounds in just eight of 24 games and his rebounding numbers in non-conference play were even lower.

While the NC State Wolfpack are just 201st in the country in rebounding rate (49.6%) that number is a bit skewed from earlier in the season when Mohamed Diarra wasn't getting much playing time.

Diarra has been a force on the boards with at least 12 rebounds in seven of his last eight games and the Wolfpack have upped their rebounding rate to 53.6% over their previous three contests. With Diarra competing against Edey on the glass, I'm leaning towards the Under 14.5 for Edey's rebounds.

Rebounds prop: Under 14.5 rebounds (-126 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Double dip

With the Boilermakers relying on Edey to carry their offense, the Wolfpack will do everything in their power to try and stop the big man. While no team can truly stop Edey, the Wolfpack are one of the few teams with the personnel to at least slow him down.

With 275-pound center D.J. Burns along with 6-foot-10 forwards Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks, the Wolfpack have multiple bigs they can send against Edey.

Double-teaming Edey in the paint will open things up for Purdue's perimeter shooters. While the Wolfpack have been red-hot they've been a bit lucky when it comes to defending the arc. This was a team that ended the regular season outside the Top 250 in opponent 3-point percentage (35.1%) but is holding foes to 28.4% shooting from deep since the start of the ACC Tournament.

However, they haven't necessarily been defending better since Marquette went just 1-for10 on unguarded threes in the Sweet 16 while Duke also missed its share of wide-open shots.

The Boilermakers are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the country, and while they struggled to knock down shots against Tennessee's elite defense in the Sweet 16, they should bounce back here. That should mean an uptick in the assists column for Edey. Edey dished out just one dime in each of the last two rounds but he had dropped 2+ assists in 13 of his previous 14 contests averaging 2.8 apg during that span.

The Over 1.5 for Edey's assists opened at -120 and even though it has has been steamed to -150 there's still value. Expect NC State to swarm Edey with Burns and Diarra which will lead to him kicking the ball out to his teammates on the perimeter.

Assists prop: Over 1.5 assists (-150 at bet365)