For more Bama/Vols picks: check out our favorite Alabama vs. Tennessee player props.
Alabama vs Tennessee prediction and best bet
Who will win Alabama vs Tennessee?
I'm a believer in this Tennessee Volunteers defense, but the Vols haven’t seen anything like Jalen Milroe and this Alabama Crimson Tide offense.
Kalen DeBoer has shown his bag of tricks is deep in big SEC games. Meanwhile, Nico Iamaleava and this Vols offense have taken a step back since the start of conference play. Milroe will make more big plays and Bama will win as a result.
My best bet
First half Under 27.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
With that said, I don’t expect Alabama to come out swinging the same way they did against Georgia a few weeks ago.
For starters, this a tough road environment to play in. Neyland Stadium in Knoxville should be rocking, and while Tennessee hasn’t seen an offense like Bama's, you can make the argument that Bama hasn’t seen a defense as good as Tennessee has.
Led by potential No. 1 overall draft pick James Pearce, this Vols defense has been nasty. Tennessee enters this matchup ranked second in the nation in both opponent EPA/play and defensive success rate and has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game this season.
Now, Alabama has looked like one of the most explosive offenses in the country at times with Milroe and super-freshman Ryan Williams, but it seems like they've relied a little too much on those guys to make big plays and have lacked down-to-down consistency. Tennessee will be better prepared to limit those big plays than most.
My bet is DeBoer tries to address that inconsistency and take that raucous Knoxville crowd out of its frenzy with some calculated long drives, which features more of the running game, whether that's with Milroe or a guy like Jam Miller.
On the other side, the high-powered Vols offense has stalled since the start of conference play. Nico Iamaleava has looked more like a freshman quarterback, and the offense has suffered. Tennessee ranks 119th in yards per play and hasn’t scored more than 25 points over the last three games.
Alabama’s defense has some flaws and ranks a mediocre 39th in defensive success rate vs. the rush, so I won’t be surprised if we see a heavy dose of Dylan Sampson early to try and ease Nico into this massive matchup.
That all leads me to the first-half Under. Game script, good defense, and running the football have me betting on a lower-scoring first half. I prefer this to the full-game total because I can see Nico getting comfortable in the second half against a suspect Bama secondary, along with the potential for DeBoer to open things up as the game goes along.
Alabama vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
First half Under 27.5
Dylan Sampson 100+ rushing yards
Dylan Sampson anytime touchdown
This kind of plays off my best bet. I believe the Volunteers will feed running back Dylan Sampson; not only will Tennessee be able to set the tone physically, it will open things up for Nico in the passing game as well.
Not to mention Sampson has been outstanding this season. The Vols back has already rumbled for 699 yards at 5.9 yards per carry and has scored a whopping 15 touchdowns, finding the end zone at least once in every game this season.
Josh Heupel also didn’t get away from Sampson in a matchup against a tough Oklahoma defense, feeding him the rock 24 times for 92 yards and a score. And while people like to pick on Alabama’s secondary, the run defense has given up a few too many explosive plays as well.
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Alabama vs Tennessee odds
Alabama vs Tennessee live odds
Alabama vs Tennessee opening odds
- Alabama vs. Tennessee spread: Tennessee +2
- Alabama vs. Tennessee moneyline: Alabama -130, Tennessee +110
- Alabama vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Alabama vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tennessee opened this massive SEC matchup as a 2-point home underdog and has moved to +3. I'd be a little surprised if sportsbooks let this go past the key number of 3.5.
- While I took Alabama to win due to having a little more faith in Jalen Milroe to make a clutch play late in this game, I don't hate getting a field goal with Tennessee at home with that great defense.
- The total hit the board at 56.5 and has bounced back and forth between that and 57.
- As noted, I prefer the first-half Under as opposed to the full game, as I believe things could potentially open up in the second.
Alabama vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has covered the spread in five of their last seven games at home for +2.80 units and a 36% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Tennessee.
Alabama vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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