The Army Black Knights will do what they can to make their case for a College Football Playoff berth as they visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night.
The Black Knights are one of the best stories of the season, but they’ll be outclassed by the Fighting Irish, as I’ll explain in my early Army vs. Notre Dame predictions.
See where I think bettors should be leaning this week in my free college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Army vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame -14 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
No matter what I go on to say in the next few paragraphs, the Army Black Knights have a lot to be proud of this season. It’s never easy to go undefeated, regardless of your strength of schedule, and this is likely the best team we’ve seen out of West Point in decades.
That said, the Black Knights are in for a rude awakening on Saturday. For starters, let’s go to a couple ratings system to see approximately how big the gap is between these two programs. Sagarin has the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as the No. 6 team in the nation, compared to No. 56 for Army, with about a 17.5-point gap between these two teams on a neutral field.
ESPN’s SP+ is a little kinder to the Black Knights, with Notre Dame (No. 8) only about 14.5 points better than Army (No. 32).
Army has played one of the weakest schedules in the nation, more similar to the quality of competition for an elite FCS squad than a team playing for a College Football Playoff berth. That doesn’t make Army a bad team, as they’re outscoring those weaker opponents by nearly 25 points per game. The Black Knights are — to some extent — for real.
Doing that against Notre Dame will be a tall task. The Irish aren’t the best team in the country against the rush, but they are strong, giving up just 3.5 yards per attempt. When you consider Notre Dame plays a much higher level of competition and knows Army will be one-dimensional, it will be tough sledding for the Black Knights.
And while Army has been able to use the passing game very efficiently as a surprise weapon, that will be difficult against Notre Dame, which has only allowed opponents to complete 47.7% of their passes — the best mark in the country.
Notre Dame’s upset loss to Northern Illinois may be giving people some hope that Army can come into South Bend and compete, but that game is far behind the Irish, who have been dominant against all comers since then. Notre Dame is the clear pick, and I think you should take them early before the line catches up to the reality of the situation.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 44.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The consensus is that Army is more legitimately a top-tier team on defense than on offense, and that makes the total an interesting market for this matchup. I’ve already talked above about how this will be a tough game for the Black Knights against a talented Notre Dame defense, but do they have a better chance of shutting down the Fighting Irish in response?
There's some hope that this could be the case. Army has been outstanding against the passing game, allowing just 9.2 yards per completion. Meanwhile, Riley Leonard has been just alright in the aerial attack, with his value coming more from being a dual-threat quarterback than someone who can change the game with his arm. Even adjusting for strength of schedule, Army should have a decent shot at forcing the Irish into running the ball.
However, Notre Dame has plenty of options in the rushing game, with both Leonard (6.2 yards per carry) and running back Jeremiyah Love (6.3 yards per carry) being among the more dangerous threats on the ground in the country. Throw in Jadarian Price (7.3 yards per carry) as a change of pace, and that’s a lot to handle.
Notre Dame has been one of the best running teams in the country, and Army hasn’t had to face many physical, athletic running attacks this year, as opponents have only run the ball 25.4 times per game on the season. I expect the Irish to use their depth to wear down Army and eventually open huge holes — and a big lead — as we get deeper into the game.
Army is averaging 35.2 ppg this year, so I expect the Black Knights will do something on the offensive end to add to the total. And with Notre Dame poised to move the ball well, especially in the second half, I think the Over is the play with a low total on offer.
Army vs Notre Dame live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
