The New Orleans Pelicans have dealt with a flurry of key injuries this season, and the team is just 1-7 across its last eight. The Dallas Mavericks are on a two-game win streak as they host the Pels on Tuesday.
Dallas is riding high, and my Pelicans vs. Mavericks predictions expect it to handle business and cover this spread. Read more in my NBA picks below.
Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Mavericks -12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a monster spread for the Dallas Mavericks, but the New Orleans Pelicans are trotting out a skeleton crew, and they won’t be able to keep up with the defending Western Conference champs.
New Orleans will be missing CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins, and Jose Alvarado for this contest, which means it will be tough sledding for this depleted roster.
Unsurprisingly, this Pelicans offense has sputtered to the tune of 104.6 points per game, good for 29th in the Association. It’s been even worse over the last three games, as New Orleans has averaged just 96 points.
No team has scored fewer points on the road this season, and the Pelicans (96.5) are the only team to average fewer than 100. Dallas’ defense ranks eighth in scoring defense, and the Mavs should be able to limit this low-scoring offense.
After losing four straight games by three points or fewer, Dallas is back on track with two straight wins. That includes a blowout victory over the Spurs and a two-point win over the Thunder without Luka Doncic.
Luka's questionable again tonight, but even if he’s unavailable, I’ll take Dallas to cover. The team has played some excellent competition over the last two weeks, and Tuesday’s matchup with New Orleans offers the chance to come away with a comfortable victory.
Pelicans vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Mavericks -12
Yves Missi Over 7.5 rebounds
Brandon Ingram Under 37.5 points + rebounds + assists
Yves Missi has enjoyed a productive start to his rookie campaign, averaging 6.7 boards across 23.5 minutes per game. Since joining the starting lineup, he’s averaged 7.6 rebounds across 25.8 minutes in nine appearances. He's pulled down 10+ rebounds in four games and at least seven in six games. He’s grabbed 7+ in four straight and averaged 4.3 offensive rebounds in that span.
He's averaged 3.0 offensive rebounds for the season — tied for 10th in the NBA. Dallas allows the fifth-most rebounds and third-most offensive rebounds, which presents an excellent opportunity for Missi to cash this prop.
The hits just keep on coming for New Orleans, and the team has been left to rely on Ingram to put this team on his back. He’s averaging 23.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists this season, good for 35 PRA. He’s been on a roll and cashed the Over on this line in two straight and three of four. He’s provided at least 38 PRA in seven of 14 games, but I don’t expect him to do so tonight.
This Mavs defense has allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and the fourth-fewest at home. Ingram’s home-road splits are cavernous, as he’s posted 39.8 at home and just 28.8 on the road. I’m betting on a comfortable Dallas victory, which means the Mavs will bottle up Ingram.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the NBA action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Pelicans vs Mavericks odds
Pelicans vs Mavericks live odds
Pelicans vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +12 | Dallas -12
- Moneyline: New Orleans +500 | Dallas -700
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pelicans vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- New Orleans has covered in two straight games, but the team is just 4-10 ATS this season.
- Dallas has also covered in back-to-back games to improve its ATS record to 6-7-1.
- The Pelicans rank 29th in points per game and 18th in points allowed. They are 7-7 O/U this season.
- The Mavericks rank 12th in points scored and eighth in points allowed, and the team is 6-8 O/U for the season.
Pelicans vs Mavericks trend
The head-to-head matchup has been a dead heat. Over the last 10, each team has won and covered five times, and the Over has hit six times. Last season, the teams each won and covered twice, and the Over hit three times. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Pelicans vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, KFAA |
Pelicans vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
