Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Prediction and Picks for College Football Week 13

It’s a MAC-tion-packed Tuesday night in college football as the Central Michigan Chippewas host the Western Michigan Broncos in the battle for the Victory Cannon at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. 

Western Michigan is bowl-eligible despite losing two straight and still has an outside shot at reaching the conference title game. The Broncos must win out, and that mission begins with a Chippewas team that has lost five straight and whose bowl chances ended last week. 

I break down the 95th meeting between these schools in our college football picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 19 with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan prediction and best bet

Who will win Western Michigan vs Central Michigan?

Central Michigan has faced a tough conference slate, already having played the top three teams in the MAC over the last five games. But the Chippewas have also performed much better at home than on the road, just like their opponents.

Western Michigan clearly has the better offense, and the Broncos will punish the Chippewa defense. But the Broncos rank 90th in EPA/rush and 131st in defensive success, and will have problems with a Central Michigan rushing attack ranked 26th in EPA/rush.  

The Chippewas will run the ball well enough to keep things interesting for a while. But once they’re forced to throw, drives will likely come to an end. I like the Broncos to win in a close one.

My best bet
Kenneth Womack Over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Western Michigan’s offense sputtered the last two games, both defeats by multiple scores. A key reason for that is the performance of QB Hayden Wolff, who threw two picks in each game and had just one touchdown over the two contests.

But there’s a reasonable explanation for that regression. Northern Illinois ranks ninth nationally in both yards/dropback and EPA/dropback. Meanwhile, Bowling Green ranks 17th and 11th, respectively, in those same metrics.

Central Michigan isn’t anywhere close to the top teams, with the Chippewas ranking 87th in EPA/DB and 60th in yards/DB. Those marks are similar to Buffalo, whom Wolff faced in another road game last month, throwing for 280 yards and three touchdowns.

Where the teams differ are their sack rates. Buffalo is among the worst in the nation at getting to the quarterback, while Central Michigan ranks 12th. But if the Chipps don’t get home on the pass rush, they get punished on the back end.

When that happens tonight, Kenneth Womack will cash in. Despite Wolff’s recent struggles, the wideout’s production hasn’t waned since returning from a broken hand that cost him multiple games to start the year.

Not only does he lead the team with 2.29 yards per route run, but he’s caught 3+ passes in six of seven contests, with 51+ yards in each of his last four.

Last week, he caught four passes for 62 yards, more than half of Wolff’s entire air yardage. And in that game against Buffalo, Womack hauled in three catches for a season-high 71 yards.

Leading receivers have been posting big days against this Central Michigan secondary. Last week, Toledo's Jerjuan Newton had just three catches for 40 yards in a game where the Rockets only completed 14 passes.

But before that, the Chippewas had allowed 86+ receiving yards to their opponents' top receivers. And Womack, despite missing those three games, leads the team with 45 targets — seven more than fellow receiver Anthony Sambucci. 

Last year, Wolff threw for a season-high 333 yards against Central Michigan, as Womack caught 12 of those passes for 135 yards. He’s set to punish a defense allowing 7.8 yards per pass and conceding more than three 20+ yard throws per game on average in MAC play.

Womack’s yardage set at 52.5 at bet365, which is two yards less than other books and is far too low. Jump on the favorable number while you have the chance, and play his Over up to 57.5 yards

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)

Kenneth Womack Over 52.5 receiving yards

Hayden Wolff 2+ passing TDs

Over 54.5

+375 at bet365

Before facing arguably the two best pass defenses in the MAC, Wolff had thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his six games that weren’t against Ohio State or Wisconsin. MAC teams are averaging nearly two touchdown passes per game against Central Michigan, and I like Wolff to throw a pair.

Western Michigan tends to get into shootouts in victories, especially on the road. However, I don’t think we see that here given Central Michigan’s struggles passing and having a quarterback making just his second start, but I do expect we’ll see a higher scoring output from the Chippewas — enough to push this total to 55+ points. Use bet365's 30% profit boost to get a bit more money out of this SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Western Michigan vs Central Michigan odds

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan live odds

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan opening odds

• Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan spread: Central Michigan +7
• Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan moneyline: Western Michigan -280, Central Michigan +230
• Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan Over/Under: 55.5

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread sits at Western Michigan -6.5 after opening at -7.5 on Sunday.
• Central Michigan is 2-5 ATS in its last seven, while Western Michigan has covered in just three of its last nine.
• The total sits at 56.5 after jumping up a point shortly after the line opened. It’s the highest point total of any Central Michigan game this season by four points.
• The Under 57.5 hit last week for Western Michigan, ending a run of five straight Over cashes. Central Michigan has seen the Under hit in two straight, as the Chippewas have scored 23 total points in their last two outings.

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan betting trend to know

Central Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Michigan vs Central Michigan.

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