After a heartbreaking loss to Alabama in Week 5, Georgia looks to rebuild its College Football Playoff resume against the Crimson Tide’s arch-rival, Auburn.
With the Tigers limping to a 2-3 start, my Auburn vs. Georgia predictions expect the Bulldogs’ offensive stars to shine and their defense to shut Hugh Freeze’s team down in my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Auburn vs Georgia props for Week 6
- Trevor Etienne Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Payton Thorne Under 187.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Carson Beck Over 2.5 passing TDs (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-5.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Auburn vs Georgia college football player props
Prop bet #1: Trevor Etienne Over 82.5 rushing yards
It’s been a somewhat quiet start to Trevor Etienne’s career in Athens. The Florida transfer was suspended for the Clemson game and has had just 36 carries in the three games since.
But his lack of touches has far more to do with Georgia’s in-game situation. He had just five carries in a blowout of Tennessee Tech and 12 in the loss to Alabama, where the Bulldogs were trailing for most of the game.
Against Auburn, he should see a similar workload to that of the Kentucky game (19 carries) and it will lead to a far more productive day. The Tigers' defense is just 100th in EPA per rush and is allowing 156.5 rushing yards per game in SEC play.
Over the last two seasons at Florida, when he was splitting carries behind a far worse offensive line, Etienne averaged 112.4 rushing yards per game in the five games he saw 15-plus carries. With him taking the bulk of the snaps against Kentucky and Alabama for Kirby Smart’s team, it’s safe to assume he’s clearly the team's top back.
Etienne’s averaging a career-high 4.19 yards after contact this season, per PFF, and that should come in handy against a Tigers defense that’s missed a whopping 51 tackles in just five games.
It will also help Etienne’s cause that Georgia should get out to an early lead and look to lean on him in the second half. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season, and if he keeps up that pace, 15 carries will have him easily clearing 82.5 yards.
Prop bet #2: Payton Thorne Under 187.5 passing yards
Just five games into the season and Freeze has already thrown his QBs under the bus for poor play, made a QB change, and made a change back to the original starting QB. That’s the Freeze experience, good luck Auburn.
Last week against Oklahoma, Payton Thorne finally seemed to get into a groove, and then he threw a crushing pick-six to hand the Sooners the lead. Things won’t get any easier against Georgia for an offense that’s 59th in EPA per dropback.
The Bulldogs are 10th in EPA per dropback on defense and are allowing the 19th-fewest passing yards per game in the Power 4 (162.0). With a secondary led by potential first-round pick Malachi Starks and a front seven full of All-SEC talent, Auburn’s passing game is poised to sputter out.
To make matters worse, this is Auburn’s first road game of the season, and it ain’t easy playing in Sanford Stadium. The crowd will make things almost as tough on Thorne as Georgia’s pass rush.
And it’s not as if Thorne has been overly impressive in four appearances this season. His adjusted completion rate is just 69.4%, and he’s only made one big-time throw in two SEC games.
Plus, his receivers haven’t been doing him any favors, with seven drops on passes he’s thrown. There’s also the factor of Freeze being willing to pull Thorne for redshirt freshman Hank Brown if Thorne’s struggling.
All those factors are going to make it tough for him to hit 188 passing yards against Georgia.
Prop bet #3: Carson Beck Over 2.5 passing TDs
After a rough first half against Alabama, Carson Beck snapped back into form and looked far more like the QB that’s been touted as the potential No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Auburn should offer Beck a far easier matchup than their Iron Bowl rivals. The Tigers are ranked 105th in EPA per dropback on defense and have two starting cornerbacks allowing an NFL QB rating of over 114.0.
Beck is also by far the best QB this Auburn defense will have seen to this point. Their three Power 4 games have come against Cal, Arkansas, and Oklahoma — two of those teams start QBs who are better runners than throwers.
That means Golden Bears QB Fernando Mendoza is the best passer the Tigers have faced, and they allowed him to throw for two TDs at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
How’s this defense going to slow a first-round pick on the road? Especially when he’s coming off one of the best halves of football of his career against an Alabama defense that’s 13th in SP+?
Against the Crimson Tide, Beck made a career-high five big-time throws on his way to passing for three touchdowns. It also helped that Arian Smith and Dillon Bell emerged as big-play threats downfield.
With Bell ranking 17th in the country in contested catches (5) and Smith averaging 8.1 yards after the catch per reception, they should be able to take advantage of Auburn’s secondary and help Beck rack up the TD passes.
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