Get set for a huge late-night ACC clash when the undefeated Miami Hurricanes travel west to meet the 3-1-0 California Golden Bears.
Hurricanes QB Cam Ward leads the nation with 18 scoring strikes, and his TD prop is one of three Miami vs. California predictions we’re eying for this important ACC tilt.
See which other player props I’m targeting with my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Miami vs California props for Week 6
- Cam Ward Over 2.5 passing TDs (+115 at BetMGM)
- Damien Martinez Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Fernando Mendoza Under 216.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-4.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Miami vs California college football player props
Prop bet #1: Cam Ward Over 2.5 passing TDs
Miami boasts the second-best passing offense in the nation, and Hurricanes senior QB Cam Ward is the reason why.
Ward has slung the second-most passing yards in the country (1,782) with 18 scoring strikes through the Hurricanes’ first five bouts. The fifth-year grad transfer from Washington State has been sacked only five times and has had all the time in the world to find one of eight Hurricanes with receiving TDs.
California does an excellent job defending the pass — it’s allowed only three TD passes with nine interceptions on 189 passing yards allowed per game this season. But the Golden Bears will have trouble with Ward and the Hurricanes’ speedy wideouts.
What I like most about this play is we get better than even money for something Ward has done in each of his last five games. The Hurricanes signal-caller threw three TD passes at Cal last season, and Miami has a much better offensive line with more gifted receivers.
I like the value we’re getting for Ward slinging three TDs against a defense that might be better on paper than in real life.
Prop bet #2: Damien Martinez Over 55 rushing yards
Hurricanes junior running back Damien Martinez has been a welcome addition to the Hurricanes backfield. The Oregon State transfer is coming off a 1,100-yard rushing season with the Beavers and is beginning to earn Mario Cristobal’s trust.
The junior from Lewisville, Texas has scampered for 250 rushing yards on 54 attempts and is coming off a 60-yard day on 14 carries against Virginia Tech.
By comparison, the remaining three RBs in Miami’s rotation had eight attempts for 48 rushing yards in their four-point victory over the Hokies.
That means Martinez will likely handle the brunt of the rushing responsibilities against a California Golden Bears rushing defense that has allowed 112.5 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per attempt to FBS schools.
The ‘Cane’s offensive line has a considerable size advantage. I believe we will see Martinez putting in big work behind his massive O-line against the softer Golden Bears’ rushing defense. The junior RB has scampered for 60+ in three of his last five and should clear 57 rushing yards.
Prop bet #3: Fernando Mendoza Under 216.5 passing yards
Golden Bears sophomore QB Fernando Mendoza may not find the Hurricanes’ defense as accommodating as the Florida State Seminoles were when they allowed Mendoza to throw for a career-high 303 passing yards on September 21 in Miami.
The Miami passing defense allows fewer than 10 yards per reception and 178 passing yards per game. Last week, the Hurricanes stop unit held Hokies QB Kyron Drones to 188 passing yards at a 57% completion rate.
The game script calls for the Golden Bears to play from a considerable deficit. Mendoza is a capable passing QB, but the sophomore may not have much time to find his receivers, as he’s suffered 13 sacks across his last two tilts, including seven against the Seminoles.
The sacks didn’t slow Mendoza against FSU, but the Hurricanes play a different brand of defense. They’ve already registered 18 sacks, and the constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks has led to nine interceptions, four of which were on the road.
Miami is going to throw the kitchen sink at Mendoza. The lack of protection is concerning, and that’s caused the Golden Bears quarterback to throw a drive-ending interception in each of his last two games. The sacks and interceptions are partially responsible for the Canes allowing 178 passing yards per game. I expect the constant Miami pressure to wreak havoc, and Mendoza will end Under his passing yards number.
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