NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Missouri Gives Aggies Agita

Missouri Tigers

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

I not only backed the Missouri Tigers to cover the spread in my early Missouri vs. Texas A&M picks at the start of the week, I picked them to win outright. And nothing I’ve seen this week has made me change my mind.

Missouri hasn’t found many chunk plays this season when passing the ball, and yet the Tigers are still posting solid metrics through the air. Brady Cook is completing nearly 69% of his throws and has tossed just one pick in 134 attempts. 

The Texas A&M Aggies are allowing 234 passing yards per game despite facing the 13th-lowest passing play share in college football. They don’t get to the quarterback often despite the talent they have on the defensive line, and they rank 90th in EPA/pass. 

Missouri ranks Top 20 in offensive success on both pass and run plays, while Texas A&M ranks middle of the pack in both areas. On the flip side, the Tigers are doing an outstanding job against the run and rank sixth in third-down defense. 

Texas A&M is converting on just 35% of its third down attempts and ranks in the 100s in most passing metrics. If its offense falls behind the chains, freshman quarterback Marcel Reed will have quite a bit of pressure on his shoulders. 

Making matters worse, the Aggies aren’t getting many explosive plays on offense. They rank 118th nationally, which means the offense will have to put together consistent drives. They aren’t completing a high percentage of passes, and I expect they’ll be punting quite often — as they did on nine of their 12 drives against Arkansas.

One other thing to consider is fatigue. Missouri is coming off a bye week and facing an Aggie team that has yet to have any time off. Texas A&M is coming off an emotional, hard-fought win over rival Arkansas and now must deal with a very physical opponent.  

With an extra week to prepare, I’ll take Missouri to have a terrific gameplan to take advantage of a tired Texas A&M team and overcome the atmosphere at Kyle Field. 

South Carolina Gamecocks

Best odds: +270 at BetMGM

Kentucky’s defense gave the South Carolina Gamecocks the blueprint to beat the Mississippi Rebels in its upset win last weekend. Not only do they have the ability to do so, but the Gamecocks might be even better equipped than the Wildcats to execute it.

Mississippi has problems protecting the quarterback, with the Rebels ranked dead-last with a 15.84% sack rate allowed. The Wildcats had Jaxson Dart rattled all game long, sacking him four times and pressuring him repeatedly. He’s going to have feelings of deja vu when he visits Columbia, with Dylan Stewart leading a pass rush that ranks 22nd in sack rate.

South Carolina also wants to do exactly what Kentucky did offensively — run the ball and control the clock. The Gamecocks rank eighth nationally in run share at nearly 65% of their offensive snaps, and 39th in time of possession. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers is set to return this week, and he showed huge strides against LSU before getting hurt.

The Rebels have outstanding metrics defensively, but they’ve also not truly been tested. Kentucky’s offense has been pedestrian at best against good teams, including these very Gamecocks. And yet they still managed to find success on the ground last week. 

Raheim Sanders only had one carry last week against Akron before being injured, but he’s listed as probable heading into this game. The South Carolina back gained over 4.0 ypc against Kentucky and ran for 143 yards and two scores against LSU. 

I expect Sanders and Sellers to do enough damage with their legs to shorten this game, and Mississippi will struggle to handle yet another dominant pass rush. Look for the Gamecocks to prove they’re still being underrated.

Michigan Wolverines

Best odds: +100 at BetMGM

While it’s not much of an upset given the 1.5-point spread, the Michigan Wolverines getting the win will be an upset nonetheless. 

The Wolverines can’t throw the ball this season. Everyone knows they’re going to run the ball, and yet nobody can seem to do enough to shut them down. And while the Washington Huskies have one of the best pass defenses in college football, they’ve not performed well against the ground game.

Washington ranks 89th in EPA/rush. While opponents have only gained 3.6 yards per carry, the Huskies are prone to giving up big plays. They’ve allowed 35 runs of 10+ yards, with only nine teams in the country conceding more chunk runs. 

There are also two common factors that have contributed to Washington’s two defeats this season. The Huskies outgained Rutgers 521-299 last weekend, and lost by three. They missed multiple field goals, couldn’t convert on third down, and failed to convert 10 of their 12 third down attempts. 

This came after they lost to their rivals Washington State despite having 71 more yards of offense. It was a similar story — they committed 16 penalties, and went 4-for-13 on third down.

The Huskies are 130th in penalties per play and 91st in third-down conversion rate. Michigan ranks in the Top 25 in early-down success on defense, and the Huskies can’t afford to get behind the chains against a secondary that has a high Havoc rate. 

Michigan’s played a tougher schedule and despite its inability to throw the ball have come out with wins. The Wolverine ground game will wear the Huskies down, and the home team’s mistakes will once again come back to haunt them.