The Clemson Tigers won seven straight games against their supposed toughest ACC competition before the Florida State Seminoles prevailed in overtime last season. The ACC world is poised to return to normalcy this weekend with the Tigers heavily favored in this tilt.
My Clemson vs. Florida State predictions will trust the Tigers, even with an ugly hook on this spread of -14.5. Any free college football picks should recognize the Seminoles are overmatched in the trenches, which will doom them further come kickoff at 7:00 ET on Saturday, October 5.
Clemson vs Florida State prediction
My best bet
Clemson -14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s easy to put all of Florida State’s offensive troubles on the right arm of D.J. Uiagalelei, but he has not been the crippling problem for the Seminoles that lazy analysis insists. Florida State’s offensive line is the greater issue.
It is hardly Uiagalelei’s fault that the Seminoles succeed on only 38.7% of their rushes, No. 89 in the country. It is not his fault Florida State is so afraid to run the ball that it ranks No. 11 in fewest rush attempts per game.
It is probably partly his fault that the offensive line has given up 12 sacks this season, No. 103 in the country, and losing 82 yards on them (No. 112) is more of a quarterback indicator than the line.
But the greatest Seminoles’ flaw is indeed its offensive line, and now that line is going to have a less athletic quarterback to protect in Brock Glenn, with the broad expectation that a broken finger will sideline Uiagalelei.
The former four-star recruit has not dazzled in his limited action. In six appearances, Glenn has completed only 19 of his 55 passes, throwing two interceptions. He is still young and Florida State fans should not be too dismissive in the long run, but there is little reason to think the Seminoles offense is going to find any success against a defense that particularly excels on late downs.
In that regard, this is a bad matchup for Florida State. Clemson prefers opponents throw against it rather than run. The Seminoles will oblige that only because their offensive line is too weak to support a rushing game. Slipping into exotic looks is not a sustainable pathway, more bluntly only a patchwork attempt out of desperation.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney says again tonight they're prepping for Florida State -- which is starting backup QB Brock Glenn this week -- to possibly do some wildcat on Saturday night with RB Lawrance Toafili, as FSU did in the ACC title game last year
— Chapel Fowler (@chapelfowler) October 2, 2024
The subsequent offensive failures will put the ball back in the Tigers’ paws too often to not cover this spread, even when facing that frustrating hook.
Clemson vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Clemson -13.5
Florida State team total Under 13.5 points
This alternate team total Under is bold, but it makes sense when recognizing the Seminoles rarely turn possessions into quality drives. At its current rate of scoring 3.08 points per quality drive (No. 108 in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com) and enjoying quality drives on only 29.4% of possessions (No. 118), then Florida State would need an absurd 17 possessions to score 14 points.
That is a bit extreme, but life could be that difficult for the Seminoles going against a better-than-average defense. By any advanced metrics, Clemson’s defense is better than any Florida State has faced to date, though Cal, SMU, and Boston College are all rather comparable. Notably, the Seminoles have averaged 14.3 points against those three opponents.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clemson vs Florida State odds
Clemson vs Florida State live odds
Clemson vs Florida State opening odds
- Clemson vs. Florida State spread: Clemson -14.5
- Clemson vs. Florida State moneyline: Clemson -750, Florida State +525
- Clemson vs. Florida State Over/Under: 47.0
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Clemson vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line on this Game of the Year favored Florida State by 3.5 points all summer, making this one of the biggest shifts of the entire season.
- This number then reopened on Sunday with Clemson favored by two full touchdowns, toggling up to -14.5 on Monday evening.
- This total reached the market on Sunday at 45.5 and then quickly climbed to 47, reaching 47.5 on Monday night and some sportsbooks tempting 48 on Wednesday morning.
Clemson vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Tigers are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 12.5 points. Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs Florida State.
Clemson vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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