College Football Player Props & Best Bets: Restrepo Burns Golden Bears' Secondary

Prop bet #1: Justin Joly 40+ receiving yards

Best odds: -105 at DraftKings

There’s bad, there’s ugly, and then there’s the Wake Forest Demon Deacons defense. 

Dave Clawson’s team has been an unmitigated disaster on D, surrendering 470.5 total yards per game on 6.7 yards per play. The Deacons head into Week 6 ranked 129th in EPA per play and 131st in success rate and have been especially poor against the pass (132nd in EPA per pass, 134th in passing success rate). 

It’s clear to see why on tape: The secondary leaves players wide open and the pass rush simply cannot get home or affect the opposing passer. They don’t have enough impact corners they can trust, and the pass rush only has two edge players (Jasheen Davis and Branson Combs) who've made much of a difference. 

Davis missed two games and has been playing banged up without his usual effectiveness, while Combs is considered questionable while also dealing with an ailment. Interior defensive lineman Kevin Pointer, the only player on the roster with more than 1.5 tackles for loss, is doubtful. 

The Deacs already struggle mightily to get in the backfield, so the NC State Wolfpack should have time to pick apart this porous secondary. I’m betting on tight end Justin Joly making the most of this situation by reaching 40 receiving yards in Week 6. 

The UConn transfer has been the Pack’s most efficient catcher, sitting just four yards shy of receiving yardage leader Kevin Concepcion despite seeing fewer than half the targets of the slot receiver.

Joly leads the team with six missed tackles forced and is difficult to stop with the ball in his hands, so it likely won’t take many receptions for him to cash the Over on his receiving prop. 

Prop bet #2: Behren Morton Over 248.5 passing yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have fielded a more competent passing offense this year than we’ve seen recently, ranking 21st in EPA per pass and 17th in passing explosiveness.

Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley isn’t shy about chucking the ball all around — he was co-OC for WKU’s Bailey Zappe’s record-breaking 2021 season — and the Red Raiders check in at 40th in pass rate while averaging 41.8 pass attempts per game. 

For a team averaging 305.4 passing yards per game, how do we end up with a passing yardage prop of 248.5? It’s too low if you ask me, so I’m buying quarterback Behren Morton to go Over that number. 

Kittley has this offense moving as TTU ranks 14th in tempo, snapping the ball 2.47 times per minute. More plays, more stats... that’s what the math folks tell me, anyway. 

I’m not scared of the Week 6 matchup, as the Arizona Wildcats just allowed 280 passing yards to true freshman QB Isaac Wilson and checked in at 68th in success rate defensively. 

The Wildcats lost a lot of production up front from last year’s upstart defense and it's shown. They rank 94th in front-seven havoc and likely won’t be able to put much pressure on Morton without sending extra blitzers, which would open up passing lanes. 

This number is off, and I’m taking the Over. 

Prop bet #3: Xavier Restrepo Over 72.5 receiving yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

Miami Hurricanes slot wide receiver Xavier Restrepo’s receiving yardage prop is set at 72.5 for Week 6’s tilt with the California Golden Bears. 

The 5-foot-10 senior leads the Canes in targets (34), receiving yards (421), receiving touchdowns (five), missed tackles forced (five), and PFF receiving grade (84.7). Not only is he one of the country’s best and most reliable pass catchers, but he’s also the favorite target of Heisman candidate Cam Ward. 

The Miami staff hasn’t been shy about allowing Ward to throw the ball as much as possible, racking up stats and garnering Heisman buzz along the way. Restrepo should be due for many more prolific outings given his status as the most-trusted target in a passing attack averaging 392.6 ypg. 

The diminutive dominator also gets a favorable matchup on Saturday as Cal’s two primary slot defenders have struggled this season. Ja’ir Smith has a 58.1 coverage grade (per PFF) while Lu-Magia Hearns III is even worse at 53.6. 

College GameDay is in town meaning Cristobal and this staff will relish the opportunity for Ward to show out on a national stage. Expect Restrepo to be a big part of Saturday’s passing attack.