The Baylor Bears (1-0) are set to head to Rice-Eccles Stadium to face the Utah Utes (1-0) in a non-conference game between two Big 12 teams.
If that sounds odd, that’s because it is — the two programs had scheduled this home-and-home series nearly 10 years ago and opted to keep this game as a non-league matchup despite the Utes joining the Big 12 this season.
Read on for my best bet and college football picks for Saturday, September 7.
Baylor vs Utah prediction
My best bet
Over 54.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There may not be a more improved unit in the country than the Utah Utes on offense. Andy Ludwig’s squad averaged just 23.2 points per game a year ago while ranking 105th in EPA per play, painfully reeling the loss of quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe due to injury.
It was blatantly obvious that the offense was in for better days when Rising threw for 254 yards and five touchdowns on just 15 attempts against Southern Utah last weekend, while Kuithe corralled four passes for 69 yards and three scores.
The good times should keep rolling in Week 2 as they face a Baylor Bears defense that ranked 130th in EPA per play, 119th in success rate, and 122nd in explosiveness last season. They return nine starters and could improve with more experience to their benefit, but I’ll need to see it before I believe it. A massive step forward is needed, not a small one.
There is more reason for optimism with the offense. Jake Spavital arrives as the new offensive coordinator after leading a drastic improvement at Cal a year ago, improving the offense from 23.9 ppg to 30.2 ppg in his lone season calling the shots. I was particularly impressed with those results as he pulled them off despite featuring an unheralded redshirt freshman at quarterback.
The Bears were moving and grooving offensively in Week 1, racking up 45 points on 443 total yards and 6.2 yards per play against Tarleton State. Utah clearly presents a more difficult challenge, but I think there's a case to be made that the Utes are overrated defensively after finishing 119th in explosiveness a year ago and losing two First-Team All-Pac-12 selections in the secondary.
We should see a quickened tempo from Baylor offensively under Spavital. The Bears ranked 34th in plays per game (2.45) in Week 1 despite holding a big lead for much of the game, going up 28-0 with 9:59 remaining in the second quarter.
Baylor vs Utah same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 54.5
Utah -14.5
Although there are reasons to expect Baylor to improve this season, I’ll need to see proof in the pudding first, and this is a very difficult ask in Week 2 on the road against the Big 12’s favorite to win the league.
Utah is well-rest and confident after going up big against Southern Utah in the opener and resting some of its key players for the final quarter and a half. The Utes have won 19 of their last 20 home games, so good luck getting the best of them at Rice-Eccles.
They’ve typically taken care of business as the favorite under Whittingham, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games when laying points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Utah odds
Baylor vs Utah live odds
Baylor vs Utah opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +14.5 (-110) | Utah -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor +450 | Utah -650
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-115) | Under 54.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Baylor vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis
- Utah is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.
- Baylor hopes for drastic improvements alongside the offensive line after ranking 96th in line yards and 102nd in front-seven havoc.
- The Utes' offensive line will put that Baylor O-line to the test, having racked up eight TFLs against Southern Utah. in Week 1.
- Ludwig's offensive game plan works best when his team can run the ball. That should be the case here — Baylor ranked 114th in EPA per rush a year ago and return just one starter along the defensive line.
Baylor vs Utah betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs. Utah.
Baylor vs Utah game info
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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