It’s baseball’s fault. If there had been a Game 7 in the World Series, it would have been this Saturday night. When you are bothered by the relative lack of high-stakes games in primetime this weekend, know it is because football schedule-makers were trying to avoid going against a Game 7 in the former national pastime.
If there had been a Game 7, this savvy scheduling would be appreciated, even lauded. One could say, college football decision-makers are aligned with us few who believe, Make Baseball Slower.
Why are there no “After Dark” games? Of all weekends, this would be the one they make the most sense, given the clock’s shift back by an hour this Sunday morning.
Alas, the added week in the 2024 calendar — literally, there is simply an additional weekend between Labor Day and Thanksgiving this year because 365 is not evenly divisible by seven — means we are at the back end of the influx of idle weeks. There are only 39 FBS vs. FBS games this Saturday, with none scheduled to kick off past 8 ET.
With so few games, remember you do not need to force action in your college football picks. In fact, you should not. Bet only where there is value in Week 10...
College football betting news for Week 10
- Let's Talk Tiebreakers
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Let’s Talk Tiebreakers
The Big Ten half of this may be moot by the end of the weekend. If Ohio State beats Penn State, then the Big Ten race will be simple: Oregon wins out and reaches the Big Ten championship game, likely facing the winner of Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23.
But if the Buckeyes lose, then this tiebreaker scenario will live on for a while...
As long as Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana are all unbeaten in Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are almost certainly going to draw the short straw. The tiebreaker would come down to the combined winning percentages of their respective conference schedules. With Northwestern dragging down that percentage for the Hoosiers, they would end up boxed out of the Big Ten title game.
This is far more likely to be an ACC stressor. As long as Clemson, Miami, and SMU are all unbeaten in ACC play, the Mustangs are almost certainly going to draw the short straw for the same reason, but in this instance, because of Boston College more than anyone else.
In other words: In addition to cheering for Duke against Miami, it would be wise for SMU to simply cheer for all its unique opponents to win some damn games. Mostly Boston College. Less so but still some so: Stanford, Duke, Pitt, Virginia, Cal.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 29, 2024
Genuine Playoff Implications
All the attention is understandably on Ohio State vs. Penn State, but there is one other game this weekend where both teams have genuine Playoff aspirations alive.
Both Pittsburgh and SMU are unbeaten in ACC play. The Panthers have a harder road ahead, welcoming Clemson in two weeks — followed by a trip to Louisville. However, as long as Pat Narduzzi remains unbeaten in 2024, the Playoff aspirations must be considered worthwhile.
I say SMU faces patsies, but its season-ending matchup with Cal should be tougher than anything Miami has coming.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 30, 2024
But if the Mustangs win this weekend, they should look at that Clemson schedule. Tigers look great these days, but at Virginia Tech could get weird. pic.twitter.com/KFCD7eh0NJ
Both Pitt and SMU had quarterback injury worries this week. Both have declared their starting quarterbacks good to go. Give Narduzzi and Rhett Lashlee some credit, as most coaches these days would play gamesmanship nonsense with those updates. (Looking at you, James Franklin.)
Yours truly has no distinct lean in this game. But in the old parlance of, “Styles make fights,” this should be a fight.
Narduzzi has shockingly allowed offensive coordinator Kade Bell to open up the offense as he prefers, turning first-year starting quarterback Eli Holstein into a bit of a star. The Panthers throw the ball 5.8% more often than the average team would in a given game state, seventh-highest in the country.
SMU’s defense is strong against the pass but better against the rush. Will the Mustangs be able to keep in contact long enough to let their offense wear down Pittsburgh?
That will be the want, as SMU runs the ball 10.9% more often than the average team would in a given game state. The Ponies will look to lean on dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings to keep the ball out of Holstein’s hands.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Will Air Force score twice?
That’s the bet. Sure, it shows itself as a team total Over/Under of 9.5, but the actual question is — will Air Force score twice at Army?
No.
That may seem aggressive, but please recognize that the Falcons put together quality drives on only 25.3% of their possessions, No. 133 in the country. Air Force owes some appreciation to Kent State for saving it from being last in the country.
Worst:
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 30, 2024
125. Wyoming 29.8%
126. Michigan 29.8%
127. Akron 27.7%
128. Temple 28.7%
129. New Mexico State 28.5%
130. Kennesaw State 27.3%
131. UTEP 27.0%
132. Houston 26.4%
133. Air Force 25.3%
134. Kent State 24.0%
Meanwhile, Army gives up quality drives on only 30.8% of opposing possessions, No. 15 in the country.
Do the math. Say the Falcons have 11 possessions, as they did against Navy a month ago, losing 34-7. Turning 28% of those into scoring opportunities — 28% simply as the midpoint between those aforementioned rates — then the Falcons will have three chances at points.
But realize Air Force should struggle more against a defense this knowledgeable in the option offense, as it did against Navy. The Falcons had only two scoring opportunities against the Midshipmen, one of which was a 45-yard touchdown pass.
Such an explosive score is the only risk in betting against Air Force to reach double digits. The Falcons will not be able to efficiently run their usual offense. It failed a month ago. It will fail again.
And no bet should ever be made solely on the thought of a service academy completing an explosive touchdown pass.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Air Force team total Under 9.5 (+110 at bet365)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
This team total Under is based more on the expected game script and the favorite’s attitude. It is a fact we all are aware of by now: Michigan has no competent passing game.
If and when Oregon takes an early lead in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines will need to throw the ball. They will fail.
And with a comfortable lead in the second half, the Ducks have made it a habit to slow down games and simply go home with an easy win. Oregon has a quality rushing game, as it can chip away at the clock once up two or three possessions, keeping the ball out of the hands of a desperate and woeful Michigan offense.
This team total Under could be had at 14.5 rather than 13.5, but at the cost of 42 cents of juice.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Michigan team total Under 13.5 points (+110 at bet365)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Duke +20.5 at Miami (-108 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)
That number could have been had at +21 if you listened to the Tuesday episode of “College Football 134.”
I'm not flinching, Duke +21 may determine my week.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 30, 2024
Manny Diaz vendetta
Cam Ward turnover problems
Duke's defense shortens this game ... pic.twitter.com/Hk3ktFdtLX
3:30 ET — Nebraska -7 vs UCLA (-108 at DraftKings)
7:30 ET — Clemson -10.5 vs. Louisville (-108 at DraftKings)
After Dark — Get some sleep. It’s gonna be a stressful week.
College Football 134 Tuesday value
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Suggesting a bet on Boise State -23 for Friday night might have seemed like taking a hefty favorite in a blowout, but that line has reached -24.5. The value was undeniable.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
Saturday LIVE at 9 a.m. ET
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Vanderbilt at Auburn? Have at ‘em.
Wondering about yet another Service Academy Under? Great. We are here for you.
If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Now how about an 18-ounce Hamm’s? Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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