College football is flatter than ever in 2024, and there are multiple reasons why.
“Flatter” as in, five teams have odds of +900 or lower to win the national championship right now at BetMGM, and eight are at +1800 or lower.
It is impossible for now to determine how much of this perceived parity is the result of a 12-team Playoff keeping more teams alive later and how much ties to the talent distribution provided by immediate eligibility upon transfer. Regardless, it is still a delight when looking at the futures board entering conference championship weekend in our college football picks...
College football betting news for Week 15
- 15 Playoff Hopefuls
- Title Odds
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
15 Playoff Hopefuls
A week ago, 22 teams still had viable national championship hopes. No, they were not all equally viable, but it was not delusional for every player of those rosters to still daydream about a title.
That remains at 15 heading into conference championship weekend. Let’s look back to this point 52 weeks ago for a moment. At most, seven teams still had those hopes.
No. 1 Georgia
No. 2 Michigan
No. 3 Washington
No. 4 Florida State
No. 5 Oregon facing Washington in the Pac-12 title game.
No. 7 Texas
No. 8 Alabama facing Georgia in the SEC title game.
More games matter in the era of the 12-team Playoff. Anyone arguing the stakes are lower has not been paying attention.
The current 15: The top 11 of the most recent selection committee rankings, the two Big 12 finalists — No. 17 Clemson and No. 20 UNLV.
Title Odds
When we get to the semifinals of the 12-team Playoff, National Championship odds will be a better comparison to years past. Whatever viability you give to No. 7 Tennessee right now (+1800 at BetMGM) has to come off the probability of No. 1 Oregon (+350) and No. 2 Texas (+400).
But for now, take a look at the top four in the futures market compared to the last few years as those seasons entered the four-team Playoffs.
2024: Oregon +350, Texas +400, Ohio State +450, Georgia +500.
2023: Michigan +185, Alabama +200, Texas +250, Washington +750.
2022: Georgia -145, Michigan +300, Ohio State +350, TCU +1,600.
2021: Alabama +115, Georgia +135, Michigan +750, Cincinnati +1,400.
Even if this year featured a four-team Playoff, the feeling would be any team could win it, unlike recent years. That is a testament to the lack of a clear powerhouse in 2024, which is the result of talent being more evenly distributed across the country thanks to immediate transfer eligibility and the NIL marketplace.
This is a good thing. This is entertainment. And, frankly, it provides more betting value.
I'll get a Sun Belt pick up by the end of the afternoon.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 6, 2024
But if you listened to the pod this week, you already know what it is ... https://t.co/K2zaE1llzq
Bonus Bet from Douglas
There has been smoke around Charles Huff’s job status at Marshall all season long. The Thundering Herd’s preseason win total was a modest 5.5, with the juice fully expecting a 6-6 season. Now 9-3 and in the Sun Belt title game, there is still smoke around Huff’s job status at Marshall.
That smoke is less smoke by now and entirely fire. On Monday, Huff had to outright address rumors that he is positioned to take the head coaching job at Southern Mississippi.
“I haven’t taken any jobs,” Huff said. “I haven’t committed to any jobs... There’s contract talks that need to take place (at Marshall).”
Throughout the week, it was repeated that the administration and Huff were not making any progress. The Herd won at Notre Dame last season. Huff has gone 7-6, 9-4, 6-7 and now 9-3. He has certainly found success.
But something is amiss in that relationship, to such an extent that Huff is now reportedly ready to take that Southern Miss job. He has an agent, obviously, and the agent presumably did most of the work talking with Southern Miss this week, but in a very real way, everyone around the Marshall program must know what is afoot.
That is not the ideal atmosphere heading into a road game for a conference championship.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Louisiana -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Iowa State moneyline vs. Arizona State (+105 at Caesars as of Friday afternoon)
4:00 ET — Texas -3 vs. Georgia (-105 at BetMGM)
Let's be clear, today's value play was not on Georgia.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 3, 2024
If you go 2-of-7 on do-or-die 2-point conversions against Georgia Tech, you are no longer a national title contender, though @Covers_Caley disagrees. Your offense is too flawed. https://t.co/gqTApXfcHI pic.twitter.com/oZKCiSTx7J
8:00 ET — Oregon -3.5 vs. Penn State (-105 at FanDuel)
College Football 134 Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. That Tuesday show had three bets in play for this Friday night.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
Saturday LIVE at 9 a.m. ET
There is no question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show, their 16th and final of the 2024 season. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football.
Curious about Ohio vs. Miami (OH)? Have at ‘em.
Wondering who might be the next North Carolina head coach? Let’s just hope it is not Bill Belichick.
If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Find a cocktail in the interim. Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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