Friday morning featured a headline of “Abolish College Football.” Congratulations to The Nation for recognizing the flaws of this sport approximately a century after they were first apparent. Somehow it took players finally getting paid and increasingly on the brink of revenue sharing for the monthly magazine to realize dynamics of the sport have been lopsided all along.
The solutions are genuinely within reach. Players in high school now may reap the appropriate standing during their collegiate careers. This is not the time to wring hands over “abolishing college football.”
Ambrose Bierce’s “The Devil’s Dictionary” was published in 1906.
“Academe: An ancient school where morality and philosophy were taught.
Academy: A modern school where football is taught.”
Bierce had the right message for his time.
If The Nation wanted to offer the right message for this time, it would be to enjoy TCU at SMU this weekend, to look for Washington’s nadir against Northwestern, and to realize Toledo at Western Kentucky might be the best game of the weekend when it comes to college football picks.
Don’t abolish college football. Abolish drop-ins with dismissive headlines that miss the glory of 134 teams in all corners of the country. Excuse me, 134 teams in all corners of the nation.
College football betting news for Week 4
- Genuine playoff implications
- Group of Five upset hopes
- Bonus bet
- A bet for every Saturday window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
Is there a game this weekend where both teams have genuine College Football Playoff hopes? Usually, the expanded 12-team Playoff insists this answer is yes, and perhaps Oklahoma feels it has a good shot at making the Playoff despite a woeful offensive line about to get repeatedly embarrassed in SEC play. No, this weekend, the only game that fits this description always would have included Playoff implications, and it’s only 80 miles from that dashed hypothetical.
Utah’s trip to Oklahoma State always would have established a Big 12 frontrunner. Whoever wins this game will have a headstart on reaching the title game, while the loser will have to avoid any further pitfall. That was always the case.
Also as always the case, no one has any idea if veteran quarterback Cam Rising will play for the Utes.
More trustworthy with an injury update: Kyle Whittingham or a magic 8 ball? https://t.co/Y4d2ThraG3 pic.twitter.com/xH8loZNiKB
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 19, 2024
While writing this early Friday afternoon, this Big 12 title primer has become something of a pick’em, some books favoring Utah by a point, others favoring Oklahoma State by a point.
Group of Five Upset Hopes
There will be few remaining chances for these weekly delights as college football slips into the conference slates, but how much joy would be found if Notre Dame lost a second game this season to a MAC team?
Miami (OH) is the defending conference champion for a reason, and BetMGM lists them as tied for No. 3 to win the conference again at +400 odds. In fact, the RedHawks are tied with Northern Illinois, the team that went to South Bend and won two weeks ago.
Should you expect Miami to win? No, of course not. Then again, no one expected the Huskies to pull off that upset, either.
Should the RedHawks cover? Yes.
Notre Dame down to a 27.5-point favorite at most books, some rogue -28 still out there.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 20, 2024
About time.
There were four different reasons I liked Miami (OH) at +28 or +28.5 during Tuesday's recording: pic.twitter.com/Vv4eIzDml6
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Tennessee’s offense has long been entertaining. This is nothing new. Tennessee’s defense, however, has consistently been the lesser half of the team. Is it now? Perhaps, perhaps not.
The fact that there is even consideration should worry Oklahoma immensely.
Tennessee ranks No. 7 in the offensive SP+ ratings at the moment, No. 10 in the defensive. For context, that split was 18 and 22 in 2023, and 2 and 30 in 2022. Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel has been working on the lesser side of his program for years now.
But that may all undersell it.
Per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, 2024 data puts Tennessee’s defense at No. 1 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per snap, the offense at “just” No. 2.
Most notable for this weekend’s concerns, the Sooners throw the ball 5.2% more than game states would usually expect, 34th most in the country. The Volunteers have the No. 2 pass defense in terms of EPA. It is stout enough, their opponents thus far have opted to avoid it as often as possible.
Backing Tennessee at Oklahoma is not the surprise, though the Sooners have not been touchdown underdogs at home in nearly 30 years. Grabbing the Volunteers at a touchdown or less because of their defense is the unexpected development.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Tennessee (-105 at BetMGM)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
Clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Keep an eye on Florida at Mississippi State. If the Bulldogs get an early lead, all indications of the Gators this season are that they will fold up early. If and when Mississippi State takes a 10-3 lead, bet them live at near even money to win the game.
3:30 ET — The spread is moving against USC, down to a 4.5-point favorite at Michigan. Why?
USC is down to -4.5 or -5 at Michigan this weekend, and I don't see it. I don't see it at all. pic.twitter.com/xX0H6uxBE2
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 20, 2024
7:00 ET — Cal moneyline (+118 at Caesar’s) at Florida State. Dear Seminoles, life can always get worse.
After Dark — Kansas State -6.5 (-113 at BetRivers) at BYU.
College Football 134 Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Take USC at Michigan, for example. That was a best bet on Tuesday at Under 46.5. As of Friday afternoon, it sits at 44.
USC-Michigan total has dipped to 44! 📉📉📉
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 19, 2024
Which is your reminder to make sure you tune in to the early week edition of College Football 134 where we gave out Under 46.5!
Some of our best bets are still available.
Listen/like/subscribe to find out what they are! 👇
iTunes:…
There is value to be had subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
This Is A Beautiful Sport
A reader has mapped out all FBS teams by who their fans think their biggest rival is. pic.twitter.com/UInNXfK2c8
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 19, 2024
College Football 134 Saturday Sneak Peek
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Purdue at Oregon State? Have at ‘em. Wondering about the Red Bandanna Game? Great. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that happens?
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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