The Coach Prime attention train rambles into Week 2 as the Colorado Buffaloes head to Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers in one of the weekend’s most intriguing matchups.
Colorado vs Nebraska predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado +7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The stage is set for a scintillating game after both teams showed up to play in Week 1. The Colorado Buffaloes averaged 8.8 yards per play while gaining 504 total yards in a 31-26 victory over North Dakota State while the Nebraska Cornhuskers demolished UTEP 40-7.
Colorado was overvalued in Week 1, failing to cover the 11.5-point spread against a very tough Bison team that would give most FBS teams fits. On the other hand, Nebraska had no problems covering the 27.5-point spread against an overwhelmed UTEP team turning over its coaching staff and roster alike.
The reaction in the betting market has been for Nebraska to move beyond a touchdown favorite as the line currently sits at -7.5 at the beginning of the week. That’s a touch too far in my opinion and I’ll grab the points with the visiting team as nothing has changed about my handicap for either squad after Week 1.
Does Colorado still need to work on the defense? Yes — the Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards on 6.5 yards per play against North Dakota State.
Still, Nebraska is breaking in a true freshman quarterback in Dylan Raiola, While he’s undeniably talented, he still has a lot to prove and I’m not ready to lay over a touchdown with a first-year quarterback playing under much-maligned offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield.
Say what you will about Coach Prime and his son, Shedeur Sanders, about their off-the-field antics. What you can’t deny is that the signal-caller has serious game.
To my eyes, he was one of the most impressive quarterbacks in the country in Week 1 when he racked up 445 passing yards and four touchdowns while making throws that most college quarterbacks simply can’t replicate. Defending him and his talented pass-catching group is different than defending most other teams as he changes the calculus with his arm talent.
Colorado won this matchup 36-14 a year ago and not enough has changed to warrant this line. Even if the Buffaloes fall behind, Shedeur gives his team a chance for a backdoor cover in any game they play.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Now, about that Colorado defense. The Buffaloes finished 123rd in EPA per play and 128th in success rate a year ago, failing to stop the rush (116th in rushing success rate) or the pass (128th in passing success rate).
They looked vulnerable yet again in Week 1, so Nebraska should be able to move the ball. The Cornhuskers were awful on offense a year ago (111th in success rate) but return enough production that they should be considerably improved.
The offensive line couldn’t block anyone (129th in front seven havoc) but returns eight of their best 10 in the rotation, providing more stability up front. The wide receiver room was revamped with two transfers in Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Texas, who combined for 10 catches for 182 yards and two scores against the Miners.
The biggest upgrade of all is at quarterback, where the five-star Raiola provides a significant boost to the sub-replacement level play Nebraska got from that position a year ago. I may not trust him to cover this spread yet, but he should be able to find soft spots against a burnable opponent.
Nebraska was superb defensively a year ago but that didn’t stop Shedeur & Co. from scoring 36 points and accumulating 454 total yards in last year’s matchup. The Buffaloes still look like they’ll have trouble running the ball but Sanders and his star-studded receiving cast (Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr., LaJohntay Wester) are too much for most teams to stop.
Colorado still needs to prove that it can run block with any effectiveness after mustering just 59 yards on 23 attempts in the opener. That being said, this rebuilt offensive line looked better in pass protection in Week 1. The Buffs allowed just a single sack against the Bison, which was the only TFL allowed on the evening.
Colorado vs Nebraska live odds
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