Florida International vs Liberty NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Panthers Keep it Close Early

If Liberty has any hope of earning the Group of Five College Football Playoff bid, it needs to blow the doors off everyone in its path. The Flames are 17-point chalk for tonight's matchup vs. the Golden Panthers, but my FIU vs. Liberty predictions break down why it won’t be as easy as it looks.

Here are my college football picks for this C-USA matchup on Tuesday, Oct. 8.

Florida International vs Liberty prediction and best bet

My best bet
FIU +10.5 First-Half Spread (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

I understand why the Liberty Flames are favored by 17 points against the Florida International Golden Panthers.

The Flames are undefeated and the heavy favorites to win the C-USA this year. They are also at home against a Golden Panthers team that lost to FCS Monmouth a few weeks ago.

But I’m not ready to write off FIU in this spot.

For starters, this Liberty team is not as dominant as the one that went 13-0 on the way to the C-USA championship. The Flames enter this game at 4-0 straight up but they’ve been sloppy.

Liberty was at least a 22-point favorite in each of its first three games and went 0-3 ATS in those games. Then in their latest game, they needed a big second-half comeback to win and cover as 7.5-point home favorites against East Carolina. A comeback that was aided by a late Pirates fumble.

Liberty still boasts a strong running game, but the offense just hasn’t been as sharp this season. Overall, the Flames rank 61st in EPA/play on offense and 41st in EPA/rush. 

Meanwhile, the Flames defense has allowed 24 points to three of its four opponents this season and rank 73rd in EPA/play. 

Now, let’s try and untangle the enigma that is FIU. The Golden Panthers opened this season with a respectable loss to Indiana, covering as big road dogs, and followed that up with a blowout win over Central Michigan. 

Then the wheels kind of fell off. The Panthers no-showed against rival Florida Atlantic and then suffered a tough 45-42 loss to FCS Monmouth as 12-point home favorites. 

Coming off two brutal losses that streak extending to three vs. Louisiana Tech as slight-home dogs felt like it was in the cards for FIU. So, of course, the Panthers won outright 17-10. 

So, it’s been hard to get a read on this Florida International squad, but the Panthers have had success when they’ve been effectively running the football and they have a chance to do that in this matchup. 

While FIU has issues stopping the run, and Liberty could wear the Panthers out over the course of the game, the fact that Liberty plays at a slow pace (90th in seconds/play) bodes well for a slow start to this game. 

I’m betting this game is closer than this spread suggests, particularly in the first half, where Liberty has a -2.3 average first-half point differential vs. FBS opponents. Give me FIU to keep this within double digits in the first half.

Florida International vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)

FIU +10.5 First-Half Spread

Quinton Cooley Over 100.5 Rush Yards

Kejon Owens Over 36.5 Rush Yards

+625 at BetMGM

Let’s run wild with this same-game parlay, starting with Liberty running back Quinton Cooley. Cooley is the lead dawg for the Flames. He is also the most explosive back on the roster and has carried the ball 53 times for 371 yards at a clip of 7.0 yards/carry. 

Cooley has topped 100 yards in three of Liberty’s four games this season and is going against an FIU defense that ranks 121st in opponent EPA/rush. I like Cooley’s chances of making it four of five.

Then let’s jump to the other side and back Kejon Owens to top a modest rushing total of 36.5. He leads the Panthers in carries with 45 and is going for a solid 4.7 yards per carry. He’s averaging 42.6 rushing yards per game this season and should keep that up against a middling Liberty rush defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida International vs Liberty odds

Florida International vs Liberty live odds

Florida International vs Liberty opening odds

• Florida International vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -20
• Florida International vs. Liberty moneyline: Florida International +800, Liberty -1,300
• Florida International vs. Liberty Over/Under: 54

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Florida International vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

• Liberty opened this C-USA matchup as 20-point home favorites, but it is FIU that has seen the early action, moving the spread down to Liberty -17.
• Liberty has consistently underperformed to oddsmakers expectations this season, going 1-3 ATS while being favored in all four games and by 22 or more points in three of those. While it's always hard to tell which version of FIU we will see, the Panthers head into this game 3-2 ATS.
• The total hit the board at 54 and has been bet up to 55.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
• Both Liberty and FIU should have success running the football in this matchup and are a combined 5-3-1 to the Over this season. But all that running and a potential slow start with an extended layoff for both teams and I am weary of the Over here.

Florida International vs Liberty betting trend to know

Liberty has only covered the 1H Spread in 5 of its last 12 games for -3.05 Units and a -23% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Florida International vs Liberty.

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