The heated NLDS battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres heads to Petco Park tonight.
This series is all tied up at one game apiece after the Friars won 10-2 on Sunday and my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions for Game 3 expect them to come out on top again.
Here are my best free MLB picks — and check out our Dodgers vs. Padres player props — for this postseason clash on October 8.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Padres Game 3?
The San Diego Padres are favored for good reason since they have a significant edge on the mound and are playing at home, where they've gone 21-8 since the All-Star break. They are starting Michael King, who had a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings and ranked in the Top 3% in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler counters King, and he's struggled since returning to the mound after missing almost two years following Tommy John surgery. Buehler had a 5.38 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP across 16 starts and his xERA (4.68), xBA (.266), and strikeout rate (18.6%) were in the bottom 20th percentile.
Buehler did throw five innings of one-run ball against San Diego in his previous start on September 26. That said, he allowed plenty of contact in that game and struck out just one batter. I'm not confident in him replicating that success against a Padres lineup that mashes righties and has been red-hot in the postseason.
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet
Pick
Padres first five innings run line -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Dodgers led the majors in OPS (.781) during the regular season but that number sits at just .643 through two postseason games. Freddie Freeman is questionable with an ankle injury, Mookie Betts has struggled in the playoffs in recent years, and NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani has gone just 4-for-30 with a single homer when playing in San Diego.
That's bad news against King, who has been dealing since the start of June, posting a 2.12 ERA while holding batters to a slugging percentage of .297 across 20 starts. King had a pair of rough outings against the Dodgers back in April but in allowed just five hits and one run in 12 innings in his most recent showdowns against L.A.
While L.A.'s bats have gone cold in the postseason, the Padres are heating up, posting an OPS of .865 through four games. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 3-for-4 at the dish on Sunday and jacked his second and third homers of the postseason while rookie phenom Jackson Merrill has been raking despite his inexperience.
The Friars finished the regular season with the best batting average in the majors (.263) despite playing their home games at an extreme pitcher's park. They were even more productive against righties, batting .272 with an OPS of .764, so expect them to get to Buehler early. That should enable them to jump out to a lead after five innings.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres F5 -0.5
Mookie Betts Under 1.5 total bases
Michael King Under 2.5 earned runs
Betts has gone just 2-for-31 at the dish in his last three postseasons as a Dodger and also has a history of struggling in San Diego. In his career, the eight-time All-Star has a .294 batting average while slugging .524 but those numbers plummet to .250 and .456 at Petco Park.
King pitched a gem against Atlanta in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, fanning 12 batters through seven innings of shutout ball. He has now allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in 19 of his last 21 starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +125 | San Diego -150
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-170) | San Diego -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers won nine of their final 11 regular-season games to finish with an MLB-best 98-64 record.
- San Diego went 43-19 after the All-Star break and swept Atlanta in two games during the Wild Card round.
- These NL West rivals have faced off 15 times this year with the Padres winning nine of those contests and the Over going 8-7.
- Despite King's red-hot play, the Padres are 3-4 in his last seven starts with their lack of run support leading to the Under cashing in six of those games.
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Dodgers are just 4-11 as road underdogs this year. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
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