Florida State vs Florida Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Seminoles Embrace Next Man Up

It feels like a special season may have been stolen from the No. 5-ranked Florida State Seminoles when do-it-all quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a devastating season-ending leg injury last week.

Florida State will have to regroup quickly as it heads to The Swamp tonight to take on the rival Florida Gators. Because, despite the Travis injury, if the Seminoles can manage to pull off two more wins, they’ll have a great chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

But winning in The Swamp is easier said than done, particularly without your starting quarterback. Yet, FSU is still a 6.5-point college football odds favorite. And while the Gators' season has been a disappointment, they would love nothing more than to crush the dreams of their in-state rivals and become bowl-eligible in one fell swoop.

I break down the matchup and bring you the best bet in my free college football picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Florida on Saturday, November 25.

Florida State vs Florida best odds

Florida State vs Florida picks and predictions

The wind has certainly been taken out of the sail of this Florida State season thanks to the Jordan Travis injury. But the Seminoles are still a perfect 11-0 and have a lot on the line this year. 

If they win both this matchup with rival Florida and the ACC Championship game next week against Louisville, and the Seminoles will have a very good case to be among the final four selected by the College Football Playoff committee.

But without Travis, that will be easier said than done. The senior signal caller had thrown for 2,756 yards with 20 touchdowns and just two picks and has another seven scores on the ground. 

Stepping in to replace him will be Tate Rodemaker. The redshirt junior has been used mostly in mop-up duty over his four-year career at Florida State. But Rodemaker will have the benefit of some elite weapons to work with, including running back Trey Benson and wide receiver Keon Coleman.

Florida State won’t be the only team in this matchup deploying a backup quarterback. Florida starter Graham Mertz broke his collarbone last week and is also out for the season, and now the Gators will have to turn to a redshirt freshman in Max Brown.

Brown almost led Florida to an upset of Missouri following Mertz's injury. But the Gators came up short, fell to 5-6 for the season, and will need to upset Florida State to earn bowl eligibility. 

While Brown doesn’t have the same level of weapons at his disposal as Rodemaker, he does have a solid running back room supporting him with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr.

With two inexperienced quarterbacks under center in this game, don’t be shocked if you see both teams lean on their running games early on. That said, the Seminoles and Gators rank 40th and 28th in defensive success rate against the run, and it could take a little while for the offenses to get rolling.

Florida State needs a win to keep its playoff hopes alive. Florida should be raring to go in The Swamp with a chance to go bowling. With both teams motivated, I am betting on an intense and low-scoring first half.

My best bet: Under 24.5 1H (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Florida State vs Florida same-game parlay

Under 24.5 1H

Florida State team total Over 28.5

Florida State -6.5

30% boost available

+521 +677 at FanDuel

My same-game parlay kicks off with my best bet, which for this Sunshine State rivalry game is Under 24.5 in the first half. But while I think this game will be low-scoring early, I believe Florida State’s edge in talent and depth will show the later the game gets.

It doesn’t hurt that those Seminoles' skill position players will get to go against a Florida defense that has been leaking like a sieve lately. The Gators have surrendered 41.2 points per game over their last five games. So, let’s keep this SGP simple and add Florida State to get Over its team total and cover the 6.5-point spread. If all three legs hit, we cash a +521 ticket. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this rivalry game has seen some interesting movement. The lookahead line, before both quarterbacks were injured, was Florida State -10.5. And then when the dust settled, and it was clear both Travis and Mertz weren’t playing, the line reopened with the Seminoles favored by 6.5 points.

But I look at that line and think two things; that Travis should be worth more than four points, and that this line also doesn’t seem to take into account how well Mertz was playing for Florida this season. Nevertheless, I believe Florida State’s edge in talent will pay off as this game progresses.

The Seminoles rank 22nd in opponent yards per play and 12th in defensive success rate. And on offense, Mike Norvell will put Rodemaker in positions to succeed by leaning on his talented skill position players. So, for those reasons, I’m leaning towards Florida State on the spread.

When it comes to the total, the line reopened at 51 and has been bet down to 49.5. Since I’m on the first-half Under I’d tend to agree with the early money. But my concern is that Florida State will flex its muscles later in the game and could sneak this game Over the total. So, I’m staying away from the full-game total here.

Florida State vs Florida betting trend to know

Florida State has hit the first quarter Under in each of their last three road games for +3 units. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Florida.

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