James Madison vs Air Force Prediction: Armed Forces Bowl Odds and Picks

Thank goodness the college football regular season ended the way it did, so the NCAA wasn’t able to get in its own way by keeping an 11-win James Madison team out of bowl season because of a frankly idiotic rule. 

Luckily, that didn’t happen and the Dukes will take on the Air Force Falcons in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Unfortunately, the excitement about James Madison playing in its first-ever bowl game today has been dampened as head coach Curt Cignetti and a large portion of the Dukes’ staff left for Indiana. That said, the college football odds still have JMU as the betting favorites here.

Can the Dukes overcome this huge obstacle, secure the program’s first bowl win, and cover the bowl game odds? Or will this matchup against a rock-solid team like the Falcons prove too much?

I break down the Armed Forces Bowl and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for James Madison vs. Air Force on December 23.

James Madison vs Air Force best odds

James Madison vs Air Force picks and predictions

The Armed Forces Bowl against a solid opponent like Air Force looked like a great way for James Madison to prove itself in its first-ever bowl game.

Then head coach Curt Cignetti and most of his staff departed for Indiana. So many left in fact, that several temporary coaches needed to be hired just to get the Dukes through this bowl game. On top of that, 10 JMU starters, including star quarterback Jordan McCloud have entered the transfer portal. 

Now, reports are stating that most of the JMU transfers are expected to play in the first-ever bowl game for the Dukes before heading out. I know JMU is motivated to get that first win but it will be interesting to see how focused they are without their regular coaching staff and with one foot out of the door. 

On paper, this is an intriguing stylistic matchup. James Madison has a historically great run defense going against the triple option offense of Air Force. An offense that ran the ball more than anyone in the country this season. 

Now, Air Force had a disastrous end to its season. After starting the season 8-0, the wheels fell off for the Falcons following a stunning 23-3 loss at the hands of rival Army as 18-point favorites. Air Force went on to lose its final four games of the season.

With several weeks off between the regular season finale and this bowl game, the Falcons are the healthiest they’ve been since October. 

Air Force ranked second in the nation in rush yards per game at 275.8 per contest at a clip of 5.0 yards per carry. But now the Falcons are going against a James Madison rush defense that allowed just 2.1 yards per carry and 61.5 yards per game. Both are tops in the nation.

While the Dukes are more balanced on offense, there has to be some effect from not having your entire coaching staff in this game. Not to mention, Air Force’s defense isn’t too shabby as well. The Falcons rank 14th in opponent yards per play, 11th in yards per carry at just 3.1 yards per attempt, and 40th in opponent yards per pass attempt.

This isn’t a service academy matchup but I’m betting both teams will try to milk the clock here while a pair of strong defenses stand tall. It feels right to take the Under in the Armed Forces Bowl.

My best bet: Under 41.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

James Madison vs Air Force same-game parlay

Under 41.5 points

Air Force moneyline

Jared Roznos anytime TD

+1,808 at FanDuel

As always, our same-game parlay kicks off with my best bet, which for the Armed Forces Bowl is the Under 41.5. And if the game is low-scoring I believe that plays into the hands of Air Force.

The Falcons are the picture of college football stability. They won’t have guys opting out and transferring for the most part. They are as healthy as they have been all year. And they have a defense that is capable of shutting down Jordan McCloud and a Dukes offense that is probably less motivated and less prepared than they would be in a normal situation this season. I think Air Force has a great chance to win this one. Let’s add the Falcons on the moneyline.

If Air Force is going to pull off the win it's going to have to score at least a couple of touchdowns. And one way to attack this JMU defense is with the deep ball. Now, Air Force doesn’t throw the ball much but Jared Roznos is the team’s leading receiver, averaging more than 30 yards per catch, and has two TD catches this season. Let’s close out this SGP with him to score an anytime touchdown.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

James Madison vs Air Force spread and Over/Under analysis

James Madison opened this bowl matchup as 3-point favorites, but Air Force saw the early action, and the line has moved to JMU -2.5 and I still think the Falcons are getting a little undervalued here. 

Through eight games everyone was calling Air Force a wagon. The Falcons looked like the favorites to win the Mountain West Conference and were very highly rated. Then, like I said, the wheels fell off. But they are as healthy as they have been all season. And with no Cignetti on the sidelines for James Madison this won’t exactly be the same Dukes team.

If this line bumps back to 3, I love getting the field goal with Air Force, otherwise, I’m going to consider taking a shot with the Falcons to win this one outright.

When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 43 and has been steadily bet down to 41.5 as of Tuesday, Dec. 19. I broke down why I like the Under above. Additionally, in the two other games where James Madison played a comparable defense to Air Force (Marshall and Troy), both games fell well Under their respective totals.

James Madison vs Air Force betting trend to know

James Madison has hit the 1H Game Total Under in six of their last seven games for +4.85 units. Find more college football betting trends for James Madison vs Air Force.

James Madison vs Air Force game info

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