The TCU Horned Frogs were playing their best football of the year to end the regular season. We'll see if it translates to tonight's New Mexico Bowl, where it will take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.
Louisiana is coming off a blowout loss at the hands of Marshall in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. They're pegged as 11.5-point underdogs in the college football odds.
Our Louisiana vs. TCU prediction thinks the Horned Frogs' work in a power conference should be a difference-maker when these teams meet at University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, December 28.
Louisiana vs TCU prediction and best bet
Who will win Louisiana vs TCU?
The TCU Horned Frogs have been a potent offensive force, ranking fourth in scoring in the Big 12 at 33.4 points per game. But it wasn't until they cut down on the turnovers that they started to look like this current version.
During the first six games of the campaign, TCU turned the ball over 14 times, contributing to a pedestrian 3-3 start. Over the final six games of the year, though, the Horned Frogs enjoyed a +3 turnover margin.
Not surprising that its only loss during that run was a last-second field goal to Baylor.
While the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have a better record at 10-3, the losses are notable, all coming against bowl-eligible teams.
The latest, a 31-3 whipping against Marshall, is by far their worst performance of the season.
With two teams trending in different directions, look for TCU to stay on trend to take home the New Mexico Bowl.
My best bet
TCU -11.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Can the team with the lesser conference pedigree keep up with one of the schools playing among the elite conferences in the nation?
That will be the question, as the Ragin' Cajuns put together a pretty solid season defensively, inside the Top 50 in yards allowed per game at 347, and a Top 30 team against the pass, allowing just 189.4 yards per contest.
The Horned Frogs' passing game ranks seventh in the nation in yards, piling up 317.6 yards per contest, powered by sophomore QB Josh Hoover.
He enters this one just 205 yards short of becoming the school's all-time single-season passing leader. His 67.2% completion rate is 11th in the NCAA.
On the other end, ULL is 35th in passing at 260.5 yards per game and will be pitted against a Horned Frogs' pass D that held its opponents to 192.7 yards through the air.
But Louisiana has yet to announce who will take the snaps in the season finale. Ben Woodbridge (shoulder) has missed the last three games, but replacement Chandler Fields has been more than serviceable, completing 72.4% of his passes with five TDs against one interception.
The Ragin' Cajuns should have an advantage at running the ball, but they'll need a monster bounce back from Bill Davis, who ran for -2 yards on four carries against Marshall. TCU allows more than 160 yards per game on the ground.
Louisiana's offense against bowl-eligible teams has not been good enough in those three losses.
The Ragin' Cajuns mustered an average of just 19.3 points per game, far down their regular season number of 33.1 per contest.
TCU has averaged 31.5 points over the final six games of the season, limiting teams to 22 points.
I see them continuing to roll in this bowl victory.
Louisiana vs TCU same-game parlay (SGP)
TCU -12.5
Under 58.5
TCU hasn't been consistent on defense, ranking outside the Top 10 in scoring defense in the Big 12 at 26.4 points per game.
As mentioned, though, this is a different team than the one that started the year and has held opponents to under 20 points per game in the final half of the regular season.
There should also be enough tape from the last game that should allow the Horned Frogs to limit Louisiana.
Marshall, who also has a strong passing defense, made it a point to completely shut down ULL's run game, allowing just 56 yards on 28 carries.
I like TCU's chances of turning Louisiana into a one-dimensional unit.
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Louisiana vs TCU odds
Louisiana vs TCU live odds
Louisiana vs TCU opening odds
- Louisiana vs. TCU spread: TCU -11.5 (-115)
- Louisiana vs. TCU moneyline: Louisiana (+350), TCU (-450)
- Louisiana vs. TCU Over/Under: 58.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Louisiana vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
- TCU opened as low as -8.5 (-110). The public drove that number to -11.5 (-115).
- Louisiana went 7-6-0 ATS this season, while TCU was 5-7-0 ATS.
- The total opened as high as 60.5 (-110) and has dipped to as low as 58.5 (-110).
Louisiana vs TCU betting trend to know
The favorite has covered the spread in each of TCU's last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana vs TCU.
How to watch Louisiana vs TCU game info
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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