The Florida Gators look to rebound from a dismal 2023 college football campaign when they host the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday.
Cam Ward is getting plenty of Heisman buzz, and his addition has Miami thinking playoffs. But the Gators need to start strong, as head coach Billy Napier’s seat is getting a bit warm. Still, our early Miami vs. Florida predictions don't think the Gators can pull it off.
I break down the early spread and Over/Under total in my college football picks below.
Miami vs Florida predictions
Early spread lean
Miami -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
In his two seasons at Washington State, Cam Ward threw for 48 touchdowns and scored another 13 with his legs. Now, he takes over the Miami Hurricanes offense and will play a similar style while throwing to an elite receiver in Xavier Restrepo.
And while it’s easy to assume he’ll face a tougher defense against an SEC opponent than those he saw last season in the Pac-12, this Florida Gators defense isn’t your typical SEC defense. Last year, they were repeatedly shredded for big plays and forced just three interceptions on the season. Ward tends to throw some questionable passes — especially on the road — but Florida may not have the personnel to take advantage.
The Gators have brought in some solid transfers in the secondary, but they’ve lost their best defender from a season ago with edge rusher Princely Umanmielen at Mississippi. And comments he made in the spring about the coaching he received at Florida don’t instill much faith in them improving in matters of Xs and Os.
While Florida’s offense is solid, it’s not built for shootouts. The offensive line struggles to open up rushing lanes, and Graham Mertz — while efficient —is more of a game manager than a game-winner, and he’ll have to contend with Francisco Mauigoa, one of the best linebackers in all of college football.
When deciding on a spread less than a field goal, it comes down to whether or not I trust the quarterbacks to lead their team on a clutch drive when it matters the most. In this case, only Ward elicits a "yes." While Ward’s career 4-8 record on the road concerns me, I’m leaning toward Miami to cover the number.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 54 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Three starters return to Miami's elite offensive line plus a former five-star guard joins the ranks. Ward’s career numbers under pressure are drastically lower than when he can scan the field, and that should lead to plenty of points for the Canes.
Florida’s defense isn’t very good, and the Canes have three outstanding targets at Ward's disposal. With top-shelf RB Damien Martinez, who transferred from Oregon State, also at his disposal, Ward has a variety of looks he can tap into. The Gators struggled mightily against the run a season ago, and Martinez should alleviate some of the pressure.
On the other side, Mertz doesn't turn the ball over. He completed 72% of his throws a season ago and had only three picks against 20 touchdowns. He’s also returning the bulk of his starting offensive line and has tight end Arlis Boardingham, who can cause matchup problems for Miami’s defense.
Eugene Wilson III should also irritate Miami’s secondary. This Hurricanes defense is replacing all four starters on the back end, and it might take some time for the unit to properly gel. While they’ll likely have some success against Florida’s average run game, the Gators have the weapons to hurt them downfield.
Given the question marks presented by both defensive backfields, I expect both offenses to find some big plays downfield. I’m leaning heavily towards the Over in this one.
Miami vs Florida live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
