We get a compelling SEC showdown on Saturday night as Kirby Smart and No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs head to Lexington to take on Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Bulldogs have looked like, well, the best team in the country through two games, and my Georiga vs. Kentucky predictions believe their defense will once again make an impact — especially early.
I break it all down for you with my college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
Georgia vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Under 24 First Half (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Georgia Bulldogs have looked every bit the part when it comes to being the No. 1 ranked team in the country.
The Dawgs opened their season with a dominating performance against Clemson, stifling the Tigers’ offense and winning 34-3, easily covering at 10.5-point favorites. Georgia didn’t cover its next game but we’ll give them a pass on that. The Bulldogs went up 45-0 on Tennessee Tech then took their foot off the gas winning 48-3.
Meanwhile, everyone knew this wasn’t going to be Mark Stoops’ best team at Kentucky, but I’m not sure many expected what happened last week. The Wildcats were blown out at home by South Carolina by a score of 31-6 as 9.5-point chalk.
The Wildcats generated just 183 yards of total offense in that game and things will only get tougher against this elite Georgia defense. Mix in the fact that Kentucky is playing at a super-slow pace this season (the Wildcats rank 129th in seconds per play), and the Wildcats are going to have real trouble finding the end zone in this game.
But you know who else is running their offense at a super-slow pace? You guessed it, Georgia. The Bulldogs rank 125th in seconds per play, and I expect that they will lean on Trevor Etienne and the run game early in this one.
I see this game playing out a lot like the Clemson game where Georgia led 6-0 at half. But instead, I’m guessing it’s more like 21-0. That’s still good enough to attack the first half Under.
Georgia vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Trevor Etienne 70+ Rushing Yards
Trevor Etienne Anytime TD
For the same reason I like the first-half Under, I like the full-game Under as well. While Georgia could come out of the half with an OK lead, having made some adjustments, and lay the hammer down on Kentucky in the second half. But I’m not so sure that’ll be the case.
Georgia will likely be content with getting this game over as quickly as possible, and while Kirby Smart does like to run up the score on some coaches, Mark Stoops isn’t one of them. Plus, the Under has hit in two of the last three meetings between these teams when they play in Lexington.
I believe this is the game where we finally see Trevor Etienne truly unleashed. The former Florida Gator didn’t play in the opener and only needed five carries to rack up 78 yards vs. Tennessee Tech.
But Etienne, the little brother of current Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis, is a game-breaker and can take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. Let’s add him to go for 70+ yards and a score to this SGP.
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Georgia vs Kentucky odds
Georgia vs Kentucky live odds
Georgia vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Georgia -23.5 | Kentucky +23.5
- Moneyline: Georgia -2500 | Kentucky +1250
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread for this SEC showdown opened with Georgia as 23.5-point road favorites but Kentucky is getting some love as a home dog with the line down to 21.5 at some shops.
- Generally, bettors like getting this many points with a home underdog when the total is relatively low like it is in this case.
- Speaking of the total, that hit the board at 45.5 and has been bet down slightly to 44.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- I prefer the first-half total here, only because Georgia could go Over the full game number on its own, and there's a chance they don't let up in the second half.
Georgia vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games for +1.90 Units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Kentucky.
Georgia vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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