The Egg Bowl may not be on Thanksgiving anymore, but when the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet the Mississippi Rebels, chaos should still be expected.
My Mississippi State vs. Mississippi prop picks will attempt to expect the unexpected as I explain more in my college football picks for November 29.
Andrew Caley also has you covered with more action in his Mississippi State vs. Mississippi predictions!
Mississippi State vs Mississippi props for Week 14
Dart Over 310.5 pass yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Booth Over 60.5 rush yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Booth anytime TD (+120 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-29.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Mississippi State vs Mississippi college football player props
Prop bet #1: Jaxson Dart Over 310.5 passing yards
Jaxson Dart has put together a memorable Mississippi career.
After his surprising debut at USC in 2021 — a four-touchdown, 391-yard showing at Washington State in Week 3 before an injury cost him a month, finishing the year with 1,353 passing yards in six games — Dart transferred to Oxford to not get caught behind Caleb Williams in Los Angeles.
Since then, he's thrown 67 touchdowns and rushed for 12 more. His 10,070 passing yards rank second in school history, only 49 yards behind Eli Manning’s school record.
Especially after last week’s disastrous interceptions that cost the Rebels their Playoff hopes, expect Lane Kiffin to prioritize some highlights for Dart’s final home game.
Those highlights should be easy to come by against one of the worst passing defenses in the country. Mississippi State ranks No. 129 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, according to cfb-graphs.
To put that in more plain terms, the Bulldogs rank No. 113 in passing yards allowed per game at 248.3, a number that would be much higher if they were not so regularly blown out — losing seven SEC games by an average of 18.6 points.
Kiffin will give Dart a few more chunk-play opportunities even after this game is decided if the Egg Bowl, in fact, does surprisingly turn lopsided, which might not even be necessary given Dart has cleared this prop in three of his last four games and seven times this season.
Dart’s Oxford farewell should include some fireworks. He has earned that joy.
Prop bet #2: Davon Booth Over 60.5 rushing yards
Mississippi State’s rushing offense is decent, No. 63 in the country in EPA per rush, which is why head coach Jeff Lebby leans on it 4.0% more often than an average team would in a given game state.
He should even more so on Friday in an attempt to shorten this game and keep the Bulldogs within range of a few Egg Bowl-esque flukes.
In that case, sophomore running back Davon Booth should become a workhorse, as he largely has been since SEC play began. Booth has averaged 15 carries in seven SEC games, clearing this prop in five of them, including the last four.
The Utah State transfer has become the most consistent piece of Mississippi State’s otherwise diminished offense.
Mississippi has an excellent rush defense, absolutely, but how many other choices will Lebby have?
Prop bet #3: Davon Booth anytime touchdown
Booth has found the end zone in nine of 11 games this season, including each of the last six. Why then, is this prop priced at plus money?
Because Mississippi’s defense is stout, a Top 10 unit in any overall regard. Looking at BetMGM’s anytime touchdown market for the Egg Bowl, expect only two scores out of the Bulldogs. The quick math of the spread of +26.5 and the total of 61.5 agrees with that thought, roughly suggesting a final score of 44-17.
But this is the Egg Bowl. Some oddities should be expected. In a blowout, as Kiffin emphasizes some moments of glory for Dart, he may also be trotting out reserves on defense, comfortable enough in the win so as to play a few lesser players in the home finale. That would obviously only help Mississippi State’s offense.
And any help for the Bulldogs’ offense should be considered as help for Booth.
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