Remember when your mother taught you, that if you have nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all? Well, the New Mexico State Aggies have a vaguely decent passing defense. And that is about all we can say about the Aggies.
That makes backing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks an easy choice tonight, especially given Rich Rodriguez prefers to run the ball.
My New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State predictions will focus on that Gamecocks’ offense, with these college football picks spotting the Aggies’ absolute misery before kickoff on Wednesday, October 9.
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Jacksonville State Over 38.5 points (-113 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
These weeknight games sneak up on you, especially the first week of them. Many devoted college football bettors will not set to understanding this matchup until just hours before the Wednesday night kickoff. That’s alright, that’s what Covers is here for. But in the interest of helping you out even more efficiently than usual, let’s simply rattle off some facts.
New Mexico State has given up 39.75 points per game to FBS opponents this season, with only Liberty failing to clear its team total. In the last three games, the Aggies’ opponents have gone Over their team totals by an average of 12.2 points per game. The most recent of those, New Mexico, has the second-worst offense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap. On a snap-by-snap basis, the Lobos are about as bad as an offense can get, including ranking No. 127 in rushing EPA.
New Mexico State’s rush defense ranks last in the country in terms of EPA, a lofty No. 120 in terms of rushing success rate against.
Jacksonville State’s offense lives and dies on the ground, which has led to some early success. The Gamecocks find offensive success on 44.7% of their rushes, No. 31 in the country, contributing to an acceptable EPA rank of No. 70. That is to say, on a snap-by-snap basis, Jacksonville State should find consistent success against New Mexico State.
But the piece of logic that propels this to a must-bet is actually the Aggies’ offense. New Mexico State puts together quality drives on just 26.2% of its drives. The Aggies have punted the ball 35 times while reaching the red zone just 12 times. Part of the reason teams so readily score against New Mexico State is that their offenses are on the field so much.
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jacksonville State team total Over 38.5
Jacksonville State -20.5
Tyler Huff anytime touchdown
Tre Stewart anytime touchdown
Again, let’s cut to the point: New Mexico State has covered just one spread this season, playing Liberty close in what was effectively the closest thing to a “Super Bowl” on the Aggies’ schedule. One would have liked to think last week’s game against New Mexico would also fit that description, given the in-state rivalry, but allowing 50 points invalidates any such praise.
All seven of the Lobos’ touchdowns came on the ground. Three of Sam Houston State’s four touchdowns were rushes. Fresno State at least varied things a bit with only four of its six touchdowns against New Mexico State coming on carries.
So it seems rather simple to trust Jacksonville State’s two primary scorers to add to their totals, quarterback Tyler Huff with five touchdowns this season and running back Tre Stewart with eight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State odds
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State live odds
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State opening odds
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State spread: Jacksonville State -18
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State moneyline: New Mexico State +800, Jacksonville State -1,400
- New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis
- With both teams off over the weekend thanks to this midweek game, some soft books posted lines on Friday, favoring Jacksonville State by only 14.5. When the genuine market opened on Sunday, that had already spiked to -18.
- Within minutes on Sunday, it climbed further to -20.5, where it has remained all week.
- The total also had a lookahead moment, one that put too much faith into New Mexico State’s defense, at 54.5. Even that lookahead number moved, up to 56.5 on Friday before opening at 57.5 on the broader market on Sunday.
- Tuesday saw that push further to 58.5, which should be taken solely as doubt in the Aggies.
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know
Four of Jacksonville State’s five games this season have gone Over their totals, in no small part because the Gamecocks average 4.2 points per quality drive, No. 29 in the country. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State.
New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State game info
| Location: | AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State weather
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