The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors host the Northern Iowa Panthers on the island for the last game of Week 4 action.
NIU’s new Air Raid offense has failed to launch so far this season, while Hawaii’s run-and-shoot isn’t doing much running or shooting.
Those reasons — among others — are why my Northern Iowa vs. Hawaii predictions love the Under tonight. Read all about it in the college football picks for September 21 below.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii prediction
My best bet
Under 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
There’s no other way to put it — the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have been a disappointing squad through three games. There was cautious optimism surrounding the program in Year 3 of the Timmy Chang era, with his system fully installed and seven starters returning on both sides of the ball.
Well, so far, they’ve shown no improvement year-over-year. Hawaii struggled to a 35-14 win over a terrible Delaware State team in Week 0 and didn’t come close to covering the 40.5-point spread. Most recently, it got thrashed 31-13 by Sam Houston State.
The Northern Iowa Panthers rank 25th in the Stats Perform FCS poll and most recently fell 34-3 in an uncompetitive game against Nebraska. Mark Farley is in his 24th year leading the program and is working with a new group of assistants after overhauling his staff following three straight six-win seasons.
Farley wants to implement the Air Raid offense, bringing in Luke Falk — a former Mike Leach quarterback — in the offseason. Falk had to resign in July, and Farley hired another former Leach quarterback, Trey Tinsley.
So far, the Air Raid has yet to get off the Tarmac, averaging 18.3 points per game and 371 total yards per game. Quarterback Aidan Dunne is completing just 52% of his passes and this offense seems to be in a state of flux.
Weather is something to watch — the current forecast calls for winds of 19 mph — something bettors have grown accustomed to dealing with in games at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Neither team has shown much to feel confident in yet this year and both QBs are completing under 54% of their passes. Both teams look better on the defensive side of the ball with NIU allowing just 17 ppg and Hawaii ranking 43rd in success rate.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 48.5
Hawaii -7
Neither team is giving many buy signals, but at least there are a few more positives to talk about with Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors kept things close with a Big Ten school, even if it was a bad one, falling by three points to UCLA. They didn’t play well against Sam Houston State, but the Bearkats have been a wagon.
NIU surrendered 8.8 yards per play to Nebraska while gaining just 4.2 yards per play itself. Getting outgained by 4.6 yards per play doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, especially not when Nebraska followed that up by losing at home to Illinois despite being favored by 9.5 points.
Hawaii is in the third year of its system and has been played well defensively, whereas NIU is in the early stages of a difficult offensive transition and barely eeked by St. Thomas in a 17-10 slog fest in one of its wins.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Northern Iowa vs Hawaii odds
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii live odds
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii opening odds
- Spread: Northern Iowa +7.5 (-110) | Hawaii -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Northern Iowa +235 | Hawaii -290
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii spread and Over/Under analysis
- Hawaii has won 21 straight games against FCS teams dating back to 2001.
- The Rainbow Warriors have trended toward the Under, cashing its first-half game total under in nine of their last 12 games.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii betting trend to know
Hawaii has cashed the Under in six of its last seven home games. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Iowa vs Hawaii.
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii game info
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:59 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Spectrum Sports |
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii latest injuries
Northern Iowa vs Hawaii weather
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