Northwestern vs Maryland NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Terrapins Roll at Home

If you're in search of a reason to believe in the Northwestern Wildcats tonight, look elsewhere.

My Northwestern vs. Maryland predictions entirely side with the Terrapins, the only genuine risk being the Wildcats will want to shorten this game via their unreliable rushing attack. 

Any college football picks backing Northwestern should be considered wildly off-base, and I explain why in my handicap for Friday, October 11.

Northwestern vs Maryland prediction

My best bet
Maryland -11 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Northwestern’s offense is broken. It ranks in the Bottom 10 of the country in finishing quality drives, the Bottom 20 in expected points added (EPA) per rush, and 11th from the bottom in rushing success rate. While the Wildcats’ passing game is better, it's nowhere near even middling.

Both advanced metrics and traditional stats make it clear how broken Northwestern’s offense is. Perhaps most costly, the Wildcats rank No. 132 in the country in yards per pass attempt at a paltry 5.4. That helps explain their No. 119 rank in third-down conversion rate at a laughable 18.6%.

Northwestern will struggle even moreso when throwing the ball against Maryland. It can be argued the only Terrapins’ defensive weakness is giving up modest rushes. But against an offense ranked No. 124 in rushing success rate, that weakness should not be a concern.

All of which is to say, the only question to this handicap should be if Maryland can score enough to cover this growing spread. Well, frankly, it might be better to ask if the Terps can score 20 points.

Maryland’s offense hasn't been dazzling this season, a step back from the Taulia Tagovailoa Era, but it's still scored at least 24 points in every game.

In particular, the Terrapins produce quality drives liberally — on 46.9% of their possessions — per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders. They also score on most of those, averaging 3.96 points per quality drive.

It may take just three quality drives for Maryland to score enough to outpace any Northwestern hopes of covering this spread, given the wild misery of the Wildcats’ offense.

Northwestern vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)

Maryland -10.5

Northwestern team total Under 14.5

Tai Felton anytime touchdown

+300 at BetMGM

This alternative team total Under fading Northwestern is effectively a bet the Wildcats will not score two TDs. Even if they do, it still won't be enough on its own.

In four games against FBS foes, Northwestern has scored two touchdowns in regulation time just once — last week against Indiana.

Of course, by the time the Wildcats managed their second trip to the end zone, they were trailing 24-10 late in the third quarter. Maryland may not establish a similar early edge, thus keeping the Terrapins’ defense engaged longer.

Furthermore, Northwestern struggles mightily at converting quality drives, ranking No. 125 in the country at 2.52 points per quality drive.

On the other side of the ball, teams tend to throw against the Wildcats because it's the weaker half of a paltry defense. Betting on Maryland to reach the end zone via the air thus makes sense, and Tai Felton has been the beneficiary of that approach in four of five games this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Northwestern vs Maryland odds

Northwestern vs Maryland live odds

Northwestern vs Maryland opening odds

• Northwestern vs. Maryland spread: Maryland -9.5
• Northwestern vs. Maryland moneyline: Northwestern +290, Maryland -375
• Northwestern vs. Maryland Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Northwestern vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

• Sunday’s opening numbers posted Maryland as a lofty 12-point favorite, quickly jumping down to -9.5. It held there into Wednesday, at which point every book moved to -10.5, with BetMGM committing to -11.
• The total opened at 43.5, immediately jumping to 45.5. Some books dabbled at 46.5 during the week, but the board consensus remained 45.5.
• If the spread continues to climb as Friday night approaches, but the total remains stuck at 45.5, it will obviously speak poorly of the market’s belief in Northwestern. One way to attack if the spread grows too high for your comfort will be finding a team total Under in the range of 16.5 or 17.

Northwestern vs Maryland betting trend to know

Northwestern has gone 0-4 against the spread in its last four games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.25 points. Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern vs Maryland.

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