With plenty of expectations on Notre Dame's shoulders ahead of the 2024 campaign, will this be the year Marcus Freeman gets his team over the proverbial hump?
Tonight's Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M predictions give food for thought on Notre Dame's offensive line issues, but my college football picks stay true to finding value on Saturday, August 31.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet
Notre Dame +3 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Bettors have put a lot of value into a redshirt freshman left tackle they have never seen play against a Power Four-quality defensive line. No, not Notre Dame starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp. We’re talking about Charles Jagusah.
As a true freshman last year, Jagusah started at left tackle in the Sun Bowl against wildly depleted Oregon State. And Jagusah played well, part of an offensive line that gave up only two sacks — though on just 21 dropbacks — and cleared the way for 256 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry (sacks adjusted). But that was against a defense down a starting defensive tackle, its leading tackler, and two more of its top-four tacklers. The Beavers had more defensive talent available than offensive talent, but they were still quite shorthanded.
Again, Jagusah played well, but did he play so well as to move this spread by a point when he tore his pec in preseason practices? How many left tackles are genuinely worth a point to a spread? Yes, a step down on the offensive line will be exacerbated against Texas A&M’s defensive line, led by Purdue transfer Nic Scourton at defensive end. But, a redshirt freshman with one game against a depleted defense is worth a point compared to a true freshman without that one game?
Notre Dame has turned to true freshman Anthonie Knapp at left tackle, a bit of a surprise given the Irish have 6-foot-8 fifth-year Tosh Baker available. The fact that Notre Dame had another, perhaps more conservative option, suggests the Irish truly are all-in on Knapp.
Regardless, since when is a left tackle with Jagusah’s lack of experience worth a point? And now, this line has reached a full field goal, arguing his torn pectoral has been worth 1.5 points and enough to touch a key number.
This has been an overreaction to an injury. Perhaps Scourton and the 12th Man’s volume provide all the difference in Mike Elko’s debut. That could have been the case against Jagusah, too. This overreaction creates value for the shrewd bettor.
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M figures to be one of the biggest clashes in Week 1, from both viewership and betting perspectives. BetMGM is reporting that it's the third-most bet game on the college football schedule and Notre Dame +3 is the sixth-most heavily bet wager.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame +3.5
Riley Leonard any time touchdown
Mitchell Evans any time touchdown
One way for Notre Dame to lessen the worry at left tackle — and keep in mind, the Irish have had nearly four full weeks to address and scheme this worry — is to mobilize quarterback Riley Leonard on offense. New Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock just created a Heisman winner at LSU by turning his quarterback loose, so he is more than comfortable featuring quarterback runs in the game plan.
By no means is Leonard like-for-like with Jayden Daniels, but he is a threat with his legs, and in his last 18 healthy games at Duke, Leonard ran for 17 touchdowns. It should be an emphasis this season, beginning in College Station.
Of course, Leonard will not forget about his biggest and most proven target. Senior tight end Mitchell Evans caught 29 passes in eight games before his 2023 was cut short by injury. That may seem a modest number, but that was an offense struggling to throw the ball at all. Evans was regularly the best option.
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, he will provide a matchup nightmare in the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Texas A&M odds
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M live odds
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Notre Dame +1.5 (-115) | Texas A&M -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -104 | Texas A&M -115
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-115) | Under 48.5 (-105)
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame was a 1.5-point underdog for more than three months before Jagusah’s injury pushed this line to +2.5. Then last week, I saw it dabble at +3.
- This total spent nearly three months at 48.5 before, again, the Jagusah injury created market confidence in Texas A&M’s defense, driving the total down to 46.5.
- If that injury occurred this week, just days before the game, perhaps that total reaction would have had merit. But Denbrock and Notre Dame have had nearly four weeks to coach up a scheme that better protects their quarterback.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Marcus Freeman is 2-0 against the spread in season openers as Notre Dame head coach. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M.
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M game info
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M latest injuries
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M weather
It looks like College Station is due for a partially cloudy night with northeastern wind that will die down throughout the evening.
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
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