The Ohio State Buckeyes want revenge. They played the Oregon Ducks evenly back in October, despite being in a road atmosphere. Neither team ever had more than a one-score lead in a back-and-forth, and the Buckeyes looked poised to notch a last-second victory only for veteran quarterback Will Howard to slide quite literally just one second too late.
My Ohio State vs. Oregon player props and college football picks expect the Buckeyes to find that revenge thanks to an explosive offense that showed newfound aggression in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff comes at 5 ET on Wednesday, January 1.
Ohio State vs Oregon props for the Rose Bowl
Will Howard anytime touchdown (+200 at BetMGM)- Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns (+550 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ohio State vs Oregon Rose Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Will Howard anytime touchdown
This has been a reliable bet this season, one that would have paid more often if Ohio State was challenged more often. It also would have paid more often if Will Howard had not fumbled a touchdown within inches of the goal line at Penn State.
Even without that tally, the Buckeyes quarterback has crossed the goal line in seven of 13 games this season, including at Oregon in mid-October. While a reasonable dual-threat quarterback, Howard is not a prolific runner, certainly not this season.
But near the goal line, Ohio State has frequently turned to the veteran to keep defenses guessing, as well as to add a blocker to the conversation where the field is at its tightest.
The Buckeyes’ offensive line should be improved thanks to the three weeks between that loss to Michigan and the rout of Tennessee. That gave it time to restore some chemistry after a pair of injuries threw it into chaos late in the season. Some might think that strength will lessen the need for an extra blocker near the goal line, but an easy counterargument would be that the offensive line’s improvement will only emphasize the effectiveness of an extra blocker.
Howard should be the ultimate beneficiary.
Prop bet #2: Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 receiving yards
Ohio State needed a wakeup call. Michigan delivered it.
The Buckeyes did not default to trusting their best players in that slugfest loss to the Wolverines, a critical error that now corrected could change the title race. Will Howard connected with Jeremiah Smith only five times against Michigan for just 35 yards, the second week in a row he had been held below 40 yards.
Then Howard went to Smith early against Tennessee and ended up finding him six times for 103 yards and two touchdowns.
Smith is a special talent, one that changes the geometry of the entire field. In 13 career games, he has surpassed this prop eight times, with one of the exceptions coming by just one yard. At Oregon, he took nine catches for 100 yards.
This is a simple premise: If the Buckeyes want to win the national championship, they need to be sure Jeremiah Smith is featured in every game. Do not overcomplicate this quarterfinal. Rely on the best player.
Prop bet #3: Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns
Obviously, this is aggressive. You see the payout and know as much immediately. It is especially aggressive since Smith has caught multiple touchdown passes in just two of 13 games, his first and last ones. But doing so against Tennessee warrants notice.
Ohio State cut loose in that home Playoff game. Will Howard went 24-of-29 for 311 yards, his best completion rate in more than two months, his most yards since that mid-October date at Oregon, and his third-highest yards per attempt of the season. It would be fair to say it was the best game of Howard’s year with the Buckeyes.
Part of that was obviously that he so turned to Jeremiah Smith.
This Rose Bowl could become a shootout. As it does so, no one is a threat to take over the game on his own more than Smith is.
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