Finally, a strong week. If not for Cam Rising's injury hijinx, it may have been a stellar one. But no one living off of college football picks is going to scoff at a 3-1 week with +2.05 units.
This weekly column still has a lot of work to do (8-13, -5.88 on the year), and that work this week will focus on two underappreciated offenses, one underappreciated defense, and a head coach who not only sees the writing on the wall but may have been the one writing on the wall.
Of course, taking the Under in Navy at Air Force is too logical to exclude. Skeptics of that must-bet are missing a greater football reality, one that extends well beyond service academy matchups.
NCAAF Best Bets for Week 6
- UNLV team total Over 32.5 (-111)
- Pittsburgh -2.5 (-115)
- Navy/Air Force Under 37 (-110)
- USC -8 (-110)
- SMU moneyline (+210)
Picks made on 10-3. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week
UNLV Team Total Over 32.5 vs. Syracuse
A week ago, this space wrote, “(Hajj-Malik) Williams could make the UNLV offense two-dimensional, an offense that through three games has dropped back only 61 times. Its running abilities are already proven, somewhat service academy-esque. Bettering an explosive passing game will unlock receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus.”
There is no value in patting a handicapper on the back for being right. There is only value in taking that confirmed expectation and applying it moving forward.
Williams went 13-of-16 for 182 yards and three touchdowns, connecting with second-team All-American White 10 times for 127 yards and two scores. De Jesus caught two passes for 50 yards. One game against only a middling defense should not assure unlocked status, but it certainly appears the Rebels now have a two-dimensional offense.
Surely that has been baked into this team total, right? Wrong.
Oddsmakers are too reliant on UNLV’s first three games, simply because that is the data they have and it outweighs — or at least counters — last week’s blowout. Through three games, the Rebels’ offense averaged -0.023 expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Every time UNLV intended to pass, its offensive positioning was likely to get worse. That is the result of a quarterback completing only 44% of his passes.
How successful was Williams? Through four games, the Rebels' offense now averages +0.042 EPA per dropback.
Just as notable, UNLV’s rush rate over expected fell from 17.2% through three games to 12.1% after four. Just in trusting the passing game, the dependency on the rush plummeted.
The Rebels threw more often with Williams behind center and they threw much more effectively. The “Go-Go” offense is going to go only further now, especially against a struggling Syracuse defense that is prone to allowing explosive rushes and consistent passes.
Pittsburgh -2.5 at North Carolina
Any early Pittsburgh lead likely will elicit boos from the Kenan Memorial Stadium crowd. Two weeks ago, North Carolina gave up more than 50 first-half points to James Madison in a blowout loss at home. Head coach Mack Brown went into the postgame locker room and spoke confusingly enough about his future that some people left that room thinking Brown was retiring.
He clarified that was not his intention, not that any intention showed up this past weekend in blowing a 20-0 lead at Duke in a 21-20 loss.
Brown has lost the narrative. North Carolina has lost defensive containment, and new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins increasingly making a Gene Chizik impression. And Pittsburgh’s passing offense should worsen that.
The Panthers have leaned into new offensive coordinator Kade Bell’s wanted approach, a surprise given how his preferences so distinctly diverge from head coach Pat Narduzzi’s careerlong demands. This version of Pittsburgh leans on the pass to set up explosive rushes.
Worse yet for North Carolina, its defense struggles most on early downs, ranking No. 75 in the country in EPA given up on first and second downs. That is when the Panthers most excel, ranking No. 12, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
When Bell and Pittsburgh have the entire playbook at their disposal, they expose defenses. The Tar Heels are ripe to be exposed, as James Madison showed, as Duke showed and especially as Mack Brown has lost control of the conversation around his program.
Navy at Air Force 
Under 37
The in-house feud over this total has gotten out of hand, and it is now missing the bigger picture. Service academy Unders are an undeniable trend, one most thoroughly embraced by most of the college football team here at Covers. Dating back to 2006, the Under has gone 44-9-1 when two service academies meet.
Others argue oddsmakers have adjusted to that trend, deflating these totals to the point there is no longer value. But what an NBA handicapper might not realize is, that sportsbooks do not focus enough attention on less than 0.3% of the games in a season. So they continue to trust their math on these games, and therein lies the blanket value. Totals this low pay the Under.
While @Covers_Caley rattles off the service academies Unders trend, @JonMetler rails against that process.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 3, 2024
It is time for someone at @Covers to realize, this isn't about the service academies. It's about a failure in math.
And there's our value in all Unders this low. pic.twitter.com/sD1uN9zfay
Plenty will worry Navy’s offense is too good this season to justify betting the Under 37. Let’s raise two counterpoints.
First of all, the Air Force offense is terrible. Even when facing teams not fluent in the option, the Falcons are producing quality drives on just 22.2% of their possessions, No. 130 in the country. Air Force very well may go scoreless in this game.
But let’s be generous and assume the Falcons score 10 points. Navy would need to reach 28 to cost us this total. When facing teams not fluent in the option thus far this year, the Midshipmen have scored 4.9 points per quality drive, creating quality drives on 43.2% of possessions. At that rate, Navy would need 14 possessions to score 28 points.
The Midshipmen might not get eight possession, certainly no more than 11.
USC -8 at Minnesota
Wisconsin needed an 18-yard touchdown possession last week to crack its team total, yet USC still covered that two-touchdown spread. The Trojans’ defense remains underappreciated, thanks to that short-field touchdown and thanks to exactly three explosive Michigan rushes. That underappreciation brings us value.
Minnesota’s disjointed offense will not produce enough for this value to resoundingly linger much longer.
And the Golden Gophers’ defense is not good, giving up plenty of success against the rush. USC might not run often, but it is effective when doing so. That combination will force Minnesota’s defense into a difficult position. Will it load up against the run for the rare moments the Trojans do so, even if that is at the detriment of a strong pass defense? There is no good choice, and any lapses will be too many for the Gophers’ scuffling offense to compensate for.
SMU moneyline at Louisville
Louisville needed three drives combining to cover 50 total yards to score 17 of its 24 points at Notre Dame last weekend. The sloppy play from the Irish was the only reason that game was seemingly close.
The Cardinals averaged 5.2 yards per play, the same as Notre Dame. When claiming to be a dynamic offense, your credibility is knocked by matching the Irish.
SMU’s offense is better, even if stats do not show that yet. The Mustangs started the season with veteran Preston Stone behind center and took more than a game to pivot to junior Kevin Jennings. Since he was given the clear and unquestioned charge at quarterback, SMU has scored 66 and 42 points in back-to-back weeks.
It took Rhett Lashlee a while to figure out his mistake, but now that he has, SMU may be back into expected form.
Jennings has completed 30-of-42 passes the last two weeks, throwing five touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Similar to UNLV’s offensive improvement — though less defined, simply given a gradual quarterback change compared to the drama the Rebels went through last week — SMU’s offense is not getting enough credit for its current form.
And the Mustangs’ defense has always been its strength. It shuts down the rush and holds up well against the pass. Louisville is overly-dependent on explosive passes, something SMU fares well at preventing.
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